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Property Crime Trends in Ohatchee: A Decade of Fluctuations
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Ohatchee in Alabama presents an interesting case study in property crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes increased from 10 to 27, representing a 170% increase. During this same period, the population grew from 4,310 to 4,505, a modest 4.5% increase.
The burglary trend in the city shows significant fluctuations. In 2010, there were 2 burglaries, which increased to 21 in 2016, before decreasing to 2 in 2022. This represents a 950% increase from 2010 to 2016, followed by a 90.5% decrease from 2016 to 2022. When considering population, the burglary rate per 1,000 people rose from 0.46 in 2010 to 4.49 in 2016, then fell to 0.44 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries increased from 0.01% in 2010 to 0.10% in 2016, before dropping to 0.02% in 2022. These fluctuations suggest periods of heightened vulnerability followed by improved security measures or law enforcement efforts.
Larceny-theft incidents show a different pattern. Starting at 6 cases in 2010, they peaked at 22 in 2017, then decreased to 20 in 2022, marking a 233% overall increase. The rate per 1,000 people rose from 1.39 in 2010 to 4.88 in 2017, settling at 4.44 in 2022. The city's portion of state larceny-thefts grew from 0.01% in 2010 to 0.04% in 2022. This trend indicates a persistent issue with theft, potentially linked to economic factors or changes in local dynamics.
Motor vehicle theft trends reveal an interesting pattern. From 2 incidents in 2010, the number dropped to zero between 2014 and 2017, then rose to 5 in 2022. This represents a 150% increase from 2010 to 2022. The rate per 1,000 people went from 0.46 in 2010 to 1.11 in 2022. Notably, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased from 0.03% in 2010 to 0.07% in 2022, despite the intervening years of zero incidents. This suggests a recent uptick in this type of crime that warrants attention.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong relationship between property crime trends and population density. As the population density increased from 733 per square mile in 2010 to 766 in 2022, total property crimes rose from 10 to 27. Additionally, there's a notable correlation with racial distribution. As the white population percentage decreased slightly from 96% in 2013 to 93% in 2022, property crimes increased, suggesting potential shifts in community dynamics.
Applying predictive models based on these trends, we can forecast that by 2029 (five years from now), property crimes may increase to approximately 35-40 incidents annually if current trends continue without intervention. This projection assumes a continuation of the overall upward trend observed from 2010 to 2022.
In summary, Ohatchee has experienced a significant increase in property crimes over the past decade, outpacing its population growth. While burglary rates have fluctuated dramatically, larceny-theft has shown a consistent upward trend, and motor vehicle theft has recently resurged. These trends, coupled with changes in population density and racial composition, suggest a evolving community landscape that may be influencing crime patterns. As the city looks towards the future, addressing these property crime trends will be crucial for maintaining community safety and quality of life.
