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Property Crime Trends in Ocean Isle Beach: A Coastal Town's Safety Improvement
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Ocean Isle Beach, located in North Carolina, has experienced significant changes in property crime rates alongside substantial population growth over recent years. From 2012 to 2019, total property crimes decreased by 47.6%, from 84 to 44 incidents, while the population increased by 24.1%, from 4,612 to 6,137 residents. This inverse relationship between crime rates and population growth presents an intriguing trend for this coastal community.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a notable decline over the observed period. In 2012, there were 47 burglaries, which decreased to 16 in 2019, representing a 66% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 10.19 per 1,000 people in 2012 to 3.55 per 1,000 in 2019. However, the city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, dropping from 0.09% in 2012 to 0.06% in 2019, with a peak of 0.12% in 2018. This suggests that while burglaries have decreased overall, their relative proportion to state totals has varied.
Larceny-theft incidents also decreased, though less dramatically than burglaries. The number of thefts fell from 35 in 2012 to 27 in 2019, a 22.9% decrease. The rate per 1,000 people dropped from 7.59 in 2012 to 5.99 in 2019. Interestingly, the city's share of state larceny-thefts remained stable at 0.02% throughout the period, indicating that the local trend aligns with state-level changes.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has been minimal, with only 2 incidents reported in 2012 and 1 in 2019. The rate per 1,000 people decreased from 0.43 in 2012 to 0.22 in 2019. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts remained very low, decreasing slightly from 0.02% in 2012 to 0.01% in 2019. This suggests that motor vehicle theft is not a significant issue for the community.
Arson data shows no reported incidents throughout the observed period, with the city consistently accounting for 0% of state arson cases. This absence of arson cases is a positive indicator for community safety.
Examining correlations between crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As the population density increased from 1,232 per square mile in 2012 to 1,640 in 2022, property crime rates decreased, suggesting that increased urbanization did not lead to higher crime rates. Additionally, the median income rose significantly from $55,993 in 2013 to $86,854 in 2022, coinciding with the overall decrease in property crimes. This could indicate that improved economic conditions may contribute to lower crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued decline in overall property crime rates. Based on the historical data and current trends, we can project that burglaries may decrease by an additional 20-30%, while larceny-theft incidents could stabilize or show a slight decrease of 5-10%. Motor vehicle thefts are likely to remain low, potentially averaging less than one incident per year. Arson cases are expected to remain at zero, maintaining the city's positive track record.
In summary, Ocean Isle Beach has demonstrated a remarkable improvement in property crime rates despite significant population growth. The substantial decrease in burglaries, coupled with moderate reductions in larceny-theft and consistently low motor vehicle theft rates, paints a picture of a community becoming safer over time. These trends, combined with rising median incomes and stable home ownership rates, suggest a positive outlook for community safety and quality of life in the coming years.
