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Property Crime Trends in Oberlin, Kansas: A Decade of Fluctuations Amid Population Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Oberlin, Kansas, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends over the past decade. The total number of property crimes fluctuated between 2010 and 2018, with the highest recorded at 21 incidents in 2017 and the lowest at 7 in 2014. This represents a 50% increase from 2010 to 2018. During this same period, the population declined from 1,877 in 2010 to 1,717 in 2018, a decrease of approximately 8.5%.
Burglary rates in the city showed significant variation over time. In 2010, there were 6 burglaries, which decreased to 2 in 2014 and 2015, before rising sharply to 8 in 2018. This represents a 33.3% increase from 2010 to 2018. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 people increased from 3.2 in 2010 to 4.7 in 2018. The city's share of state burglaries also grew substantially, from 0.04% in 2010 to 0.1% in 2018, indicating a disproportionate increase compared to statewide trends.
Larceny-theft incidents fluctuated but showed an overall increase. From 8 cases in 2010, it peaked at 15 in 2013, before settling at 11 in 2018, marking a 37.5% increase over the period. The rate per 1,000 people rose from 4.3 in 2010 to 6.4 in 2018. However, the city's percentage of state larceny-theft remained relatively stable, increasing slightly from 0.02% to 0.03%, suggesting that this trend was somewhat in line with state patterns.
Motor vehicle theft trends were inconsistent. There were no reported cases in 2010, 2014, 2017, and 2018. However, 2 cases were reported in both 2013 and 2015. Due to the sporadic nature of these incidents, it's challenging to establish a clear trend or meaningful relationship to population or state percentages.
Arson cases were rare, with only one reported incident in 2010, representing 0.22% of state arsons that year. No arson cases were reported in subsequent years with available data. This suggests that arson is not a persistent problem in the city.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between property crime rates and population density. As the population density decreased from 982 per square mile in 2010 to 898 in 2018, overall property crime incidents increased. Additionally, there's a potential correlation between declining home ownership rates (from 77% in 2013 to 70% in 2018) and increased property crime, particularly burglaries.
Applying predictive models based on these trends, we can forecast that by 2029, Oberlin may see a continued slight increase in overall property crime rates if current trends persist. Burglaries could potentially reach 10-12 incidents annually, while larceny-theft might stabilize around 13-15 cases per year. Motor vehicle theft is likely to remain sporadic, with 0-2 incidents annually. Arson cases are expected to remain rare or non-existent.
In summary, Oberlin has experienced a general upward trend in property crimes, particularly burglaries and larceny-theft, despite a declining population. This suggests an increasing crime rate per capita, which could be influenced by factors such as changing demographics, economic conditions, or local law enforcement strategies. The city's growing share of state burglaries is particularly noteworthy and may warrant focused attention from local authorities to address this trend.
