Loading Content...
Property Crime Trends in Oakley, California: A Tale of Fluctuating Rates Amid Population Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Oakley, located in California, has experienced notable changes in property crime rates alongside significant population growth over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes fluctuated, with 483 incidents in 2010 and 505 in 2022, representing a 4.6% increase. During this same period, the population grew substantially from 36,943 in 2010 to 47,880 in 2022, a 29.6% increase.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a marked decline over the years. In 2010, there were 162 burglaries, which dropped to 71 by 2022, a 56.2% decrease. When considering population growth, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents fell from 4.38 in 2010 to 1.48 in 2022, a 66.2% reduction. The city's share of state burglaries decreased from 0.09% in 2010 to 0.06% in 2022, indicating a faster decline in burglaries compared to the state average. This trend suggests improved home security measures or more effective law enforcement strategies in preventing break-ins.
Larceny-theft incidents have shown more variability but with an overall increasing trend. In 2010, there were 265 larceny-thefts, which rose to 323 by 2022, a 21.9% increase. However, when adjusted for population growth, the rate per 1,000 residents actually decreased slightly from 7.17 in 2010 to 6.75 in 2022, a 5.9% reduction. The city's proportion of state larceny-thefts increased from 0.05% to 0.06% over this period, indicating a slightly higher growth rate compared to the state average. This trend might reflect changes in retail environments or shifts in opportunistic theft patterns within the community.
Motor vehicle theft has seen a significant increase over the years. In 2010, there were 56 motor vehicle thefts, which nearly doubled to 111 by 2022, a 98.2% increase. Even when accounting for population growth, the rate per 1,000 residents increased from 1.52 in 2010 to 2.32 in 2022, a 52.6% rise. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased from 0.04% to 0.07%, suggesting a faster growth in this crime category compared to the state average. This trend could indicate a need for enhanced vehicle security measures or targeted law enforcement efforts.
Arson incidents have fluctuated over the years but show a concerning recent increase. In 2010, there were 4 arsons reported, which remained relatively stable until 2020 when it spiked to 6 incidents. The arson rate per 1,000 residents increased from 0.11 in 2010 to 0.13 in 2020, a 18.2% rise. The city's proportion of state arsons decreased from 0.07% in 2010 to 0.06% in 2020, indicating a slightly lower growth rate compared to the state average. This trend warrants close monitoring and potentially increased fire prevention efforts.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals interesting patterns. The rise in property crimes, particularly motor vehicle thefts, coincides with an increase in population density from 2,328 per square mile in 2010 to 3,017 in 2022. Additionally, there's a strong correlation between the increase in median income (from $98,482 in 2013 to $112,829 in 2022) and the rise in larceny-theft incidents, possibly indicating more high-value targets for theft.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued increase in overall property crimes, with motor vehicle thefts likely to see the most significant growth. Larceny-theft is expected to maintain its upward trend, while burglary rates may continue to decline slightly. Arson incidents are projected to remain relatively stable but should be closely monitored due to their potential for severe damage.
In conclusion, Oakley has experienced diverse trends across different property crime categories amidst substantial population growth. While burglary rates have significantly decreased, challenges remain with rising motor vehicle thefts and larceny incidents. These trends, coupled with demographic changes, highlight the need for targeted crime prevention strategies and community engagement to maintain and improve public safety in the coming years.
