Motor vehicle theft trends have been inconsistent but generally low. In 2010, there were no reported motor vehicle thefts. The highest number was recorded in 2020 with 4 incidents. In 2022, there were 3 motor vehicle thefts, representing a rate of 0.19 per 1,000 people. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased slightly from 0% in 2010 to 0.02% in 2022. While the numbers are small, the slight increase in recent years warrants attention to prevent further growth.

Arson incidents have been consistently reported as zero throughout the entire period from 2010 to 2022. This absence of arson cases suggests effective fire prevention measures and community awareness.

Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals interesting patterns. As the population density increased from 1,121 per square mile in 2010 to 1,527 in 2022, property crime rates decreased, suggesting that increased urbanization did not lead to higher crime rates. The median income rose from $71,536 in 2013 to $78,061 in 2022, which may have contributed to lower property crime rates by reducing economic motivations for such crimes.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued decrease in overall property crime rates. Based on the historical data and current trends, it's projected that by 2029, the total number of property crimes could potentially drop below 20 incidents per year, with burglaries and larceny-thefts continuing their downward trend. However, motor vehicle thefts may stabilize around current levels or show a slight increase.

In summary, Oakland has demonstrated a remarkable improvement in property crime rates over the past decade, despite significant population growth. The substantial decreases in burglaries and larceny-thefts, coupled with consistently low rates of motor vehicle theft and no reported arsons, paint a picture of a community that has effectively managed crime reduction. These trends, along with increasing median income and population density, suggest that the city has successfully balanced growth with enhanced safety measures. As Oakland continues to grow, maintaining these positive trends will be crucial for ensuring the long-term safety and prosperity of its residents.