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Property Crime Trends in Oakland, Missouri: A Decade of Significant Reduction
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Oakland, Missouri, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2018, the city experienced a significant decrease in total property crimes, dropping from 20 incidents in 2010 to 11 in 2018, representing a 45% reduction. This decline occurred alongside a population growth from 1,328 in 2010 to 1,558 in 2018, a 17.3% increase.
Burglary trends in the city show a notable decrease over time. In 2010, there were 4 burglaries reported, which dropped to zero incidents in several subsequent years, including 2018. The burglary rate per 1,000 people decreased from 3.01 in 2010 to 0 in 2018. The percentage of state burglaries attributable to the city fluctuated but remained minimal, peaking at 0.01% in 2010 and 2017. This trend suggests improved home security measures or increased community vigilance.
Larceny-theft incidents also demonstrated a downward trend, albeit with some fluctuations. The number of incidents decreased from 16 in 2010 to 11 in 2018, a 31.25% reduction. The rate per 1,000 people dropped from 12.05 in 2010 to 7.06 in 2018. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft remained consistently low, ranging from 0.01% to 0% over the years. This decline in larceny-theft could indicate improved local prevention strategies or changes in reporting practices.
Motor vehicle theft in the city was relatively rare, with only two reported incidents during the period - one in 2013 and another in 2014. The rate per 1,000 people for these years was 0.74 and 0.73, respectively. The city's contribution to state motor vehicle theft was negligible, reaching 0.01% in these two years. The low occurrence of motor vehicle theft suggests effective deterrence measures or possibly limited targets within the small community.
Arson incidents in the city were infrequent but showed a decrease over time. There were 2 cases in 2010 and 1 in 2011, with no reported incidents from 2012 to 2018. The arson rate per 1,000 people decreased from 1.51 in 2010 to 0 by 2012 and remained at zero thereafter. Notably, the city's contribution to state arson cases was relatively high in 2010 at 0.19%, dropping to 0.11% in 2011, and 0% from 2012 onward. This significant decrease in arson cases could be attributed to improved fire safety measures or enhanced community awareness.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals interesting patterns. The decrease in property crimes coincided with a significant increase in median income, rising from $95,108 in 2013 to $97,193 in 2018. Similarly, the percentage of owner-occupied housing increased from 79% in 2013 to 84% in 2018. These factors may contribute to a more stable community environment, potentially reducing property crime opportunities.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (until 2029) suggests a continuation of the overall decreasing trend. Based on historical data, we can anticipate that total property crimes may stabilize at around 5-7 incidents per year, with larceny-theft likely remaining the most common type of property crime. Burglary and motor vehicle theft are expected to remain low or non-existent, while arson incidents are predicted to stay at zero.
In summary, Oakland has demonstrated a remarkable improvement in its property crime landscape over the past decade. The significant reductions in various property crime categories, coupled with increasing median income and home ownership rates, paint a picture of a community that has become safer and more prosperous. These trends, if sustained, position the city well for continued low crime rates and enhanced quality of life for its residents in the coming years.
