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Property Crime Trends in Oak Grove, Missouri: A Decade of Significant Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Oak Grove, located in Missouri, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the city experienced a significant decrease in total property crimes, dropping from 237 incidents in 2010 to 101 in 2022, representing a 57.4% reduction. This decline occurred alongside a population growth from 10,904 in 2010 to 12,788 in 2022, marking a 17.3% increase in residents.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a notable downward trend. In 2010, there were 37 burglaries, which decreased to just 9 in 2022, a 75.7% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 3.39 per 1,000 people in 2010 to 0.70 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated over the years, starting at 0.11% in 2010, peaking at 0.23% in 2018, and settling at 0.07% in 2022. This substantial decrease in burglaries suggests improved home security measures or more effective law enforcement strategies in the area.
Larceny-theft incidents also decreased significantly. In 2010, there were 179 cases, which reduced to 72 in 2022, marking a 59.8% decrease. The rate per 1,000 people dropped from 16.42 in 2010 to 5.63 in 2022. The city's proportion of state larceny-theft cases remained relatively stable, ranging between 0.07% and 0.16% throughout the period. This consistent reduction in larceny-theft cases could indicate improved community awareness and preventive measures.
Motor vehicle theft trends showed more volatility. From 21 cases in 2010, it decreased to 9 in 2014, then rose again to 22 in 2018, before settling at 20 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people fluctuated accordingly, from 1.93 in 2010 to 1.56 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts varied between 0.07% and 0.16%. This fluctuation might reflect changing patterns in vehicle security technologies or shifts in criminal focus.
Arson cases in the city were consistently low, with a maximum of 2 cases reported in 2010 and several years reporting zero incidents. The rate per 1,000 people never exceeded 0.18, and the city's share of state arson cases ranged from 0% to 0.19%. The low incidence of arson suggests effective fire prevention and investigation measures in place.
A strong correlation appears between the decrease in property crimes and the increase in median income. As the median income rose from $59,614 in 2013 to $70,164 in 2022, a 17.7% increase, property crimes decreased by 35.7% in the same period. This suggests that improved economic conditions may contribute to reduced property crime rates.
Additionally, there's a notable correlation between the stable racial composition and crime rates. The white population remained consistently above 90% throughout the period, with minimal changes in other racial groups. This stability coincided with the overall decrease in property crimes, potentially indicating that community cohesion and stability may play a role in crime reduction.
Applying predictive models based on these trends, we can forecast that by 2029, Oak Grove may see further reductions in property crimes. Burglaries could potentially decrease to around 5-7 cases annually, larceny-theft might stabilize at 50-60 cases per year, and motor vehicle thefts could range between 15-18 cases annually. However, these predictions assume continued economic growth and community stability.
In summary, Oak Grove has demonstrated a significant and consistent reduction in property crimes over the past decade, particularly in burglaries and larceny-theft. This positive trend, occurring alongside population growth and economic improvement, suggests effective crime prevention strategies and a strengthening community fabric. The city's experience could serve as a model for similar-sized communities aiming to reduce property crime rates while managing population growth.
