Loading Content...
Property Crime Trends in Northwoods, Missouri: A Significant Decline Amid Population Decrease
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Northwoods, located in Missouri, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends. Over the past decade, the city has experienced a significant decrease in total property crimes, dropping from 193 incidents in 2010 to just 30 in 2022, representing an 84.5% reduction. This dramatic decline occurred against a backdrop of population decrease, with the city's population falling from 4,428 in 2010 to 3,764 in 2022, a 15% reduction.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a notable downward trend. In 2010, there were 84 burglaries, which decreased to just 4 in 2022, a 95.2% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 19 per 1,000 people in 2010 to 1.1 per 1,000 in 2022. Interestingly, despite this substantial decrease in absolute numbers, the city's share of state burglaries fluctuated. It started at 0.26% in 2010, dropped to 0.10% in 2015, but then rose again to 0.22% in 2020, before dramatically falling to 0.03% in 2022. This suggests that while the city has made significant progress in reducing burglaries, the state as a whole may have seen even more substantial improvements in recent years.
Larceny-theft incidents also decreased considerably over the period. From 86 cases in 2010, the number dropped to 18 in 2022, a 79.1% reduction. The rate per 1,000 people decreased from 19.4 in 2010 to 4.8 in 2022. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft statistics remained relatively low and stable, hovering around 0.06-0.08% for most of the period before dropping to 0.02% in 2022. This indicates that the city's efforts to combat larceny-theft have been effective, particularly in recent years.
Motor vehicle theft in the city showed a less dramatic but still significant decrease. From 23 incidents in 2010, it fell to 8 in 2022, a 65.2% reduction. The rate per 1,000 people decreased from 5.2 in 2010 to 2.1 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts fluctuated between 0.10% and 0.19% throughout most of the period, before dropping to 0.03% in 2022. This suggests that while progress has been made, motor vehicle theft remains a persistent issue relative to other property crimes in the city.
Arson cases in the city were sporadic and relatively low throughout the period. The highest number recorded was 3 incidents in 2016, with most years reporting zero or one case. Given the low numbers, it's difficult to draw meaningful conclusions about trends or the city's contribution to state arson statistics.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting insights. The decrease in property crimes coincides with a period of declining population density, which fell from 6,339 people per square mile in 2010 to 5,388 in 2022. This suggests that the reduction in population density may have contributed to the decrease in property crimes. Additionally, the median income in the city increased from $34,447 in 2013 to $35,203 in 2022, which could potentially be linked to the reduction in property crimes, although the correlation is not strong.
Applying predictive models based on the observed trends, it's projected that property crime rates in the city will continue to decline over the next five years. By 2029, total property crimes could potentially decrease by another 30-40% from 2022 levels, reaching around 18-21 incidents annually. However, this projection assumes that current trends and conditions persist, and unforeseen factors could alter this trajectory.
In conclusion, Northwoods has made remarkable progress in reducing property crime rates across all categories over the past decade. The significant decreases in burglary, larceny-theft, and motor vehicle theft, coupled with the city's declining share of state crime statistics, indicate effective local crime prevention strategies. As the city continues to evolve, maintaining these positive trends will be crucial for ensuring the safety and well-being of its residents.
