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Property Crime Trends in Northmoor, Missouri: A Study of Declining Rates Amid Population Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Northmoor, located in Missouri, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends. From 2010 to 2022, the city experienced fluctuations in total property crimes, with a notable decrease from 27 incidents in 2014 to 4 in 2022, representing an 85.2% reduction. During this same period, the population grew from 2,722 in 2010 to 3,513 in 2022, a 29% increase, adding complexity to the crime rate analysis.
The burglary trend in the city shows significant variability. In 2010, there was 1 burglary, which peaked at 11 in 2014, before declining to 2 in 2022. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents increased from 0.37 in 2010 to 4.09 in 2014, then decreased to 0.57 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, reaching a high of 0.04% in 2014 and 2020. This volatility suggests changing local factors influencing burglary rates, despite overall population growth.
Larceny-theft incidents showed a similar pattern of fluctuation. From 5 cases in 2010, it peaked at 17 in 2015, before dropping to 2 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents rose from 1.84 in 2010 to 5.61 in 2015, then fell to 0.57 in 2022. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft remained relatively low, peaking at 0.02% in 2015. This trend indicates an overall improvement in larceny prevention or reporting, especially considering the growing population.
Motor vehicle theft in the city showed interesting variations. From 5 incidents in 2010, it fluctuated over the years, peaking at 6 in 2016 and 2017, before dropping to 0 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 1.84 in 2010 to 0 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts reached a high of 0.04% in several years but fell to 0% by 2022. This trend suggests significant improvements in vehicle security or law enforcement strategies in recent years.
Arson cases in the city were rare, with only one reported incident in 2014, constituting 0.12% of state arsons that year. The rate per 1,000 residents for this single incident was 0.37. The absence of arson cases in other years indicates it is not a persistent issue in the city.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a notable inverse relationship between property crime rates and population density. As the population density increased from 11,519 per square mile in 2010 to 14,867 in 2022, total property crimes decreased from 11 to 4. This suggests that increased urbanization might have contributed to improved security measures or community vigilance.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends, we anticipate a continued decline in overall property crime rates for Northmoor. By 2029, which is five years from now, we project the total number of property crimes could decrease to approximately 2-3 incidents annually, assuming current trends and interventions remain consistent. This forecast takes into account the historical downward trend and the city's growing population density.
In summary, Northmoor has demonstrated a remarkable improvement in property crime rates across most categories, particularly in recent years. The most significant discoveries include the substantial reduction in total property crimes despite population growth, the near-elimination of motor vehicle thefts, and the inverse relationship between crime rates and population density. These trends suggest effective law enforcement strategies, improved community engagement, or enhanced security measures have been implemented successfully in Northmoor, potentially serving as a model for other small cities facing similar challenges.
