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Property Crime Trends in North Topsail Beach: Fluctuations Amid Population Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
North Topsail Beach, located in North Carolina, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends. From 2011 to 2022, the total number of property crimes fluctuated, with a peak of 75 incidents in 2013 and a low of 23 in 2022, representing a 69.3% decrease over this period. Concurrently, the population experienced changes, growing from 1,252 in 2011 to 1,028 in 2022, a 17.9% decrease.
Burglary rates in the city have shown significant variability over time. In 2011, there were 2 burglaries reported, which increased dramatically to 42 in 2015, before declining to 5 in 2022. This represents a 150% increase from 2011 to 2022. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents increased from 1.6 in 2011 to 4.9 in 2022, a 206% rise. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, peaking at 0.14% in 2015 and dropping to 0.02% by 2022. This trend suggests that while burglaries have generally decreased in recent years, they remain a concern relative to the population size.
Larceny-theft incidents have shown a more stable trend. Starting with 1 case in 2011, the number peaked at 48 in 2013, before settling at 17 in 2022 – a 1,600% increase over the period. The rate per 1,000 residents grew from 0.8 in 2011 to 16.5 in 2022, a stark 1,962% increase. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft cases remained relatively low, fluctuating between 0.01% and 0.04%. This indicates that while larceny-theft has increased significantly relative to the population, it remains a small fraction of state-wide incidents.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has remained relatively low but variable. From 1 incident in 2011, it reached a high of 2 in 2013 and 2021, before returning to 1 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 0.8 in 2011 to 1.0 in 2022, a 25% rise. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts has consistently been around 0.01-0.02%, indicating that this crime type has a minimal impact on state-wide statistics.
Arson cases have been consistently reported as zero throughout the observed period, suggesting this is not a significant concern for the city.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between property crime rates and population density. As the population density decreased from 201 per square mile in 2011 to 165 in 2022, property crimes per 1,000 residents increased. Additionally, there's a notable correlation between the rise in median income (from $61,990 in 2013 to $61,687 in 2022) and the overall decrease in total property crimes during this period.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a continued gradual decrease in overall property crime incidents. Burglaries are expected to stabilize around 3-4 cases annually, while larceny-theft may see a slight increase to about 20 cases per year. Motor vehicle theft is projected to remain low, averaging 1-2 incidents annually.
In summary, North Topsail Beach has experienced a complex evolution in property crime trends. While total incidents have decreased, the rates per capita for certain crimes have increased due to population decline. The city's contribution to state-wide property crime remains minimal, but local trends, particularly in burglary and larceny-theft, warrant continued attention. The inverse relationship between population density and crime rates, coupled with the correlation between rising incomes and decreasing crime, provides valuable insights for future urban planning and crime prevention strategies in this coastal community.
