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Property Crime Trends in North Newton, Kansas: A Decade of Declining Incidents
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
North Newton, located in Kansas, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends over the past decade. From 2011 to 2020, the total number of property crimes fluctuated, starting at 19 in 2011 and ending at 12 in 2020, representing a 36.84% decrease. During this same period, the population grew from 1,325 in 2011 to 1,438 in 2020, an 8.53% increase.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a notable decline over time. In 2011, there were 7 burglaries, which decreased to 3 by 2020, a 57.14% reduction. When considering population trends, the burglary rate per 1,000 people dropped from 5.28 in 2011 to 2.09 in 2020. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, starting at 0.05% in 2011, dropping to as low as 0.01% in some years, before rising to 0.12% in 2020. This suggests that while burglaries decreased overall, the city's contribution to state burglaries increased in the final year of data.
Larceny-theft incidents also showed a downward trend. From 12 cases in 2011, the number decreased to 9 in 2020, a 25% reduction. The rate per 1,000 people fell from 9.06 in 2011 to 6.26 in 2020. The city's percentage of state larceny-theft cases remained relatively stable, ranging from 0.01% to 0.05% over the years, indicating that the local trend generally aligned with state-level changes.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has been minimal, with only one reported case in 2014 and 2017. This translates to a rate of 0.67 per 1,000 people in 2014 and 0.63 in 2017. The city's contribution to state motor vehicle thefts was negligible, reaching a maximum of 0.03% in 2014. The low incidence of this crime type suggests it is not a significant concern for the community.
Arson cases were extremely rare, with only one reported incident in 2014. This single case represented 0.49% of state arson cases that year, a surprisingly high percentage given the city's size. The rate was 0.67 per 1,000 people in 2014. The absence of arson cases in other years indicates that this is not a persistent issue for the city.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between property crime rates and median income. As median income rose from $52,669 in 2013 to $69,755 in 2020, property crime incidents generally decreased. Additionally, there seems to be a weak positive correlation between population density and property crime rates, with both showing slight increases in later years.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends, we anticipate a slight uptick in overall property crime incidents by 2029. Based on historical patterns and considering recent economic trends, we project that burglaries may stabilize around 2-3 cases annually, while larceny-theft could see a modest increase to approximately 12-15 cases per year. Motor vehicle theft and arson are expected to remain rare occurrences, with potentially one or two incidents over the five-year period.
In summary, North Newton has experienced a general decline in property crime rates over the past decade, particularly in burglaries and larceny-theft. The city's contribution to state-level crime remains relatively small, reflecting its modest size. The inverse relationship between rising median income and declining crime rates suggests improving economic conditions may have played a role in reducing property crime. As the city continues to grow and develop, maintaining vigilance and community-based crime prevention strategies will be crucial in sustaining these positive trends.
