Motor vehicle theft trends showed fluctuation but ultimately increased. In 2010, there were 75 reported cases, which rose to 86 by 2020, a 14.7% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents increased slightly from 1.7 in 2010 to 1.8 in 2020. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts rose from 0.31% to 0.38% during this period, suggesting a growing concern relative to state trends.

Arson cases in the city remained relatively low but variable. The number of arsons ranged from 0 to 7 per year, with 2 reported in 2010 and 3 in 2020. Due to the low numbers, the rate per 1,000 residents remained under 0.1 throughout the decade. The city's proportion of state arsons fluctuated significantly, from 0.17% in 2010 to 0.41% in 2020, indicating volatility in this rare crime category.

Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between property crime rates and population density. As the population density increased from 9,813 per square mile in 2010 to 10,339 in 2020, overall property crime rates declined. This could suggest that increased urbanization led to more community vigilance or improved policing strategies.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends, we anticipate a continued overall decline in property crimes over the next five years (up to 2029). Burglaries are expected to decrease further, potentially reaching below 50 cases annually. Larceny-theft is projected to stabilize around 450-500 cases per year. Motor vehicle thefts may continue to fluctuate but are likely to remain between 80-100 cases annually. Arson cases are expected to remain low, with 1-3 incidents per year.

In summary, North Lauderdale has made significant strides in reducing property crime, particularly in burglaries and larceny-thefts, despite population growth. The inverse correlation between crime rates and population density suggests that urban development may have contributed to improved safety. However, the slight increase in motor vehicle thefts and the city's growing share of state property crimes in some categories indicate areas that may require continued attention from law enforcement and community leaders.