Motor vehicle theft trends have been more volatile. In 2010, there were 38 motor vehicle thefts, which decreased to 33 in 2022, a 13.2% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents slightly decreased from 0.69 in 2010 to 0.60 in 2022. However, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts decreased from 0.16% in 2010 to 0.12% in 2022. This suggests that while motor vehicle theft remains a concern, the city has made some progress in addressing this issue relative to the state.

Arson incidents in the city have fluctuated over the years but show an overall increase. In 2010, there were 2 reported arsons, which increased to 3 in 2022, a 50% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 0.04 in 2010 to 0.05 in 2022. The city's share of state arsons increased from 0.19% in 2010 to 0.45% in 2022. While the absolute numbers are low, this trend warrants attention from local authorities.

Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. There appears to be a moderate negative correlation between median income and property crime rates. As median income increased from $65,366 in 2013 to $66,005 in 2022, overall property crime rates decreased. Additionally, there seems to be a weak positive correlation between population density and property crime rates, with both showing a general decreasing trend over the years.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued overall decline in property crimes. Based on current trends, burglaries are expected to decrease further, potentially reaching around 30 incidents per year. Larceny theft is predicted to stabilize around 600 incidents annually. Motor vehicle theft may see a slight increase, potentially reaching 40 incidents per year. Arson incidents are expected to remain low but fluctuating between 1 to 3 cases annually.

In conclusion, Normal has made significant strides in reducing property crimes over the past decade, particularly in burglary and larceny theft. The city's efforts in crime prevention and community safety appear to be yielding positive results, as evidenced by the substantial decrease in overall property crime rates. However, the slight increase in arson incidents and the potential for a minor uptick in motor vehicle thefts suggest areas for continued vigilance and targeted prevention strategies. As the city moves forward, maintaining these positive trends while addressing emerging challenges will be crucial for ensuring the continued safety and well-being of its residents.