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Property Crime Trends in Niles, Illinois: A Decade of Fluctuations
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Niles, located in Illinois, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends. From 2011 to 2022, the city experienced fluctuations in total property crimes, with a notable decrease from 705 incidents in 2011 to 718 in 2022, representing a modest 1.8% increase over this period. Concurrently, the population grew from 37,334 in 2011 to 38,534 in 2022, a 3.2% increase, suggesting that property crime rates have remained relatively stable in proportion to population growth.
Burglary trends in the city show a significant decline over time. In 2011, there were 78 burglaries, which decreased to 49 in 2016, before rising slightly to 78 again in 2022. This represents a per capita rate decrease from 2.09 burglaries per 1,000 residents in 2011 to 2.02 per 1,000 in 2022. Interestingly, while the number of burglaries fluctuated, the city's share of state burglaries increased dramatically from 0.14% in 2011 to 0.47% in 2022, indicating that burglaries in the city became a larger portion of the state's total, despite local decreases.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, showed considerable variation. From 597 incidents in 2011, it peaked at 645 in 2012 before declining to 448 in 2015, and then rising again to 605 in 2022. The per capita rate decreased slightly from 15.99 per 1,000 residents in 2011 to 15.70 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's share of state larceny-theft incidents increased from 0.35% in 2011 to 0.59% in 2022, suggesting that while local rates remained relatively stable, they became a larger portion of state totals.
Motor vehicle theft in the city demonstrated a general downward trend. From 30 incidents in 2011, it decreased to 12 in 2019, before rising to 35 in 2022. The per capita rate decreased from 0.80 per 1,000 residents in 2011 to 0.91 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts remained relatively stable, moving from 0.12% in 2011 to 0.12% in 2022, with some fluctuations in between.
Arson incidents in the city were infrequent and showed no clear trend. The number of arsons ranged from 0 to 2 per year, with the highest number (2) reported in 2015, 2018, and 2020. The per capita rate remained consistently low, never exceeding 0.05 per 1,000 residents. The city's share of state arsons fluctuated between 0% and 0.19%, with no clear pattern emerging.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. There appears to be a moderate negative correlation between median income and property crime rates. As the median income increased from $67,298 in 2013 to $84,437 in 2022, overall property crime rates tended to decrease. Additionally, there seems to be a weak positive correlation between population density and property crime rates, with slight increases in density corresponding to minor upticks in crime.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential stabilization or slight decrease in overall property crime rates. Burglaries are expected to remain relatively stable, while larceny-theft may see a modest decrease. Motor vehicle theft rates are predicted to fluctuate but remain within recent historical ranges. Arson incidents are expected to remain low and infrequent.
In summary, Niles has experienced a complex evolution of property crime trends over the past decade. While some crime categories have shown decreases, others have remained stable or slightly increased. The city's share of state crime has generally increased across categories, suggesting that local law enforcement strategies may be facing unique challenges compared to state-wide trends. The relationship between rising median incomes and decreasing crime rates presents a positive indicator for the community's overall well-being and safety outlook.
