Motor vehicle theft trends have been erratic but generally low. The highest number of incidents was 6 in 2012, while many years, including 2022, saw zero or one incident. In 2022, there were 2 reported cases, representing a rate of 0.93 per 1,000 people. The city's contribution to state motor vehicle theft statistics has been minimal, never exceeding 0.09% and often at 0% or 0.01%. This suggests that motor vehicle theft is not a prevalent issue in the community.

Arson incidents have been consistently reported as zero throughout the entire period from 2010 to 2022. This absence of arson cases indicates that it is not a significant concern for the city and has no impact on state-wide arson statistics.

There appears to be a moderate correlation between the decrease in property crimes and the increase in median income. As the median income rose from $40,478 in 2013 to $56,433 in 2022, a 39.42% increase, the total property crimes decreased. This could suggest that improved economic conditions might contribute to lower property crime rates.

Applying predictive models based on the historical data, it's projected that property crime rates will continue to remain low or potentially decrease slightly over the next five years (up to 2029). The total number of property crimes is expected to stabilize around 5-8 incidents annually, with larceny-theft likely remaining the most common type of property crime.

In summary, Niagara has experienced a significant overall reduction in property crimes from 2010 to 2022, with burglaries showing the most dramatic decrease. The stable, low rates of motor vehicle theft and the consistent absence of arson cases paint a picture of a community with improving safety metrics. The correlation between rising median income and declining property crime rates suggests that economic factors may play a role in the city's crime trends. As the community moves forward, maintaining these positive trends will likely be a priority for local law enforcement and city officials.