Motor vehicle theft trends have been more volatile. The number of incidents increased from 134 in 2010 to 160 in 2022, a 19.4% rise. However, when adjusted for population, the rate increased only slightly from 2.6 to 3.3 per 1,000 people. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts fluctuated, starting at 0.87% in 2010, peaking at 1.78% in 2016, and settling at 0.77% in 2022. This pattern suggests that while the city has seen an increase in motor vehicle thefts, it has managed to keep pace with or slightly outperform state trends in recent years.

Arson cases in the city have shown significant fluctuations. The number of incidents decreased from 18 in 2010 to 14 in 2022, a 22.2% reduction. However, the city's share of state arsons increased from 3.16% to 3.01% during this period, with notable spikes in 2013 (7.89%) and 2021 (8.94%). The arson rate per 1,000 people remained relatively stable, decreasing slightly from 0.35 in 2010 to 0.29 in 2022. These trends indicate that while the absolute number of arsons has decreased, the city continues to face challenges in this area relative to the state.

Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals interesting patterns. The gradual decrease in property crimes coincides with a slight increase in median income, from $40,997 in 2013 to $46,087 in 2022. Additionally, there's a modest correlation between the reduction in property crimes and the slight increase in racial diversity, particularly the growth in the Hispanic population from 2% in 2013 to 7% in 2022.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (until 2029) suggests a continuation of the overall downward trend, albeit at a slower rate. Burglaries are projected to stabilize around 200-220 incidents annually, while larceny theft may level off at approximately 900-950 cases per year. Motor vehicle thefts are expected to remain relatively stable, fluctuating between 150-170 incidents annually. Arson cases are predicted to continue their volatile pattern, averaging 15-20 incidents per year.

In conclusion, Niagara Falls has made significant strides in reducing property crime rates over the past decade, particularly in burglary and larceny theft. While challenges remain, especially in motor vehicle theft and arson, the overall trend is positive. The city's evolving demographic composition and economic conditions appear to have played a role in these improvements. As Niagara Falls continues to adapt and implement effective crime prevention strategies, it is poised to maintain its progress in enhancing public safety and quality of life for its residents.