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Property Crime Trends in Newport, NC: A Decade of Divergent Patterns
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Newport, located in North Carolina, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes fluctuated, starting at 68 in 2010, peaking at 127 in 2014, and settling at 81 in 2022, representing a 19.12% increase overall. During this same period, the population decreased from 12,582 in 2010 to 11,732 in 2022, a 6.75% decline.
Burglary rates in the city have shown significant volatility. In 2010, there were 28 burglaries, which increased to 44 in 2011, representing a 57.14% rise. However, by 2022, burglaries had decreased to 10, a 64.29% reduction from 2010 levels. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents rose from 2.23 in 2010 to 3.59 in 2011, before falling to 0.85 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, starting at 0.05% in 2010, peaking at 0.12% in 2020, and dropping to 0.04% in 2022. This trend suggests improved home security measures or more effective law enforcement strategies targeting burglaries.
Larceny theft trends show a different pattern. In 2010, there were 38 larceny thefts, which increased to 97 in 2015, a 155.26% rise. By 2022, the number had decreased to 64, still representing a 68.42% increase from 2010. The larceny theft rate per 1,000 residents increased from 3.02 in 2010 to 7.47 in 2015, before settling at 5.46 in 2022. The city's contribution to state larceny thefts grew from 0.03% in 2010 to 0.10% in 2015, then decreased to 0.05% in 2022. This trend might indicate changing economic conditions or shifts in local retail security practices.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has shown an overall increase. From 2 incidents in 2010, it rose to 7 in 2022, a 250% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents grew from 0.16 in 2010 to 0.60 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased from 0.02% in 2010 to 0.05% in 2022, suggesting a growing problem relative to state trends.
Arson cases in the city have been sporadic. There was 1 case in 2010, 3 in 2011, and then mostly zeros or 1 case per year thereafter. The arson rate per 1,000 residents fluctuated accordingly, from 0.08 in 2010 to 0.25 in 2011, and 0.09 in 2022. The city's contribution to state arson cases varied widely, from 0.10% in 2010 to 0.33% in 2011, and 0.11% in 2022.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between population density and property crime rates. As population density decreased from 1,636 per square mile in 2010 to 1,525 in 2022, overall property crime rates increased. Additionally, there's a notable correlation between the increase in median income (from $44,408 in 2013 to $57,539 in 2022) and the overall decrease in burglaries, suggesting improved economic conditions may contribute to reduced property crimes.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next seven years (up to 2029), we can expect a slight increase in overall property crimes, primarily driven by continued growth in larceny theft and motor vehicle theft. Burglaries are likely to remain relatively stable or show a modest decrease. Arson cases are expected to remain low and sporadic.
In summary, Newport has experienced complex property crime trends over the past decade. While burglaries have significantly decreased, larceny theft and motor vehicle theft have shown concerning increases. The city's changing demographics and economic conditions appear to play a role in these trends. As Newport moves forward, addressing the rising larceny and motor vehicle theft rates while maintaining the progress made in reducing burglaries will be crucial for improving overall community safety.
