Motor vehicle theft trends have been more volatile. There was 1 incident in 2010, which increased to 3 in 2022. Despite this numerical increase, the rate per 1,000 residents remained relatively stable, changing from 0.12 in 2010 to 0.32 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts fluctuated, starting at 0.02% in 2010, peaking at 0.08% in 2018, and settling at 0.02% in 2022. These fluctuations suggest that motor vehicle theft remains a concern, albeit a minor one in the broader context of property crimes.

Arson cases in the city have been sporadic. There were no reported arsons in 2010, 2014-2018, and 2021. The highest number of arsons (3) was reported in 2011. In 2022, there was 1 arson case. The rate per 1,000 residents for years with arson cases ranged from 0.11 to 0.35. The city's share of state arsons has fluctuated, reaching a high of 0.48% in 2011 and settling at 0.19% in 2022. The infrequent nature of arson cases makes it challenging to establish a clear trend, but it remains a rare occurrence in the city.

Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As the median income increased from $76,352 in 2013 to $88,545 in 2022, there was a general decrease in property crimes, suggesting a potential inverse relationship between income levels and property crime rates. The percentage of owner-occupied housing units remained relatively stable, ranging from 78% to 84% between 2013 and 2022, which may have contributed to the overall decrease in property crimes, particularly burglaries.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued overall decline in property crimes. Burglaries are expected to remain at very low levels, possibly averaging 1-2 cases per year. Larceny-theft is projected to continue its downward trend, potentially reaching around 40-45 incidents annually by 2029. Motor vehicle thefts may stabilize at 2-3 cases per year. Arson cases are likely to remain sporadic, with years of no incidents interspersed with occasional single cases.

In summary, New Prague has experienced a significant overall reduction in property crimes from 2010 to 2022, despite population growth. This trend is particularly notable in burglaries and larceny-thefts, which have seen substantial decreases both in absolute numbers and rates per capita. The city's share of state property crimes has generally decreased across categories, indicating that it has become relatively safer compared to the state average. These positive trends, coupled with rising median incomes and stable homeownership rates, suggest that New Prague has made substantial progress in enhancing community safety and property security over the past decade.