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Property Crime Trends in New Franklin, Ohio: A Decade of Decreasing Incidents
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
New Franklin, located in Ohio, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes fluctuated, starting at 122 in 2010 and ending at 77 in 2022, representing a 36.89% decrease. During this same period, the population decreased from 14,276 in 2010 to 13,742 in 2022, a 3.74% decline.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a significant downward trend. In 2010, there were 43 burglaries, which decreased to 12 in 2022, a 72.09% reduction. When adjusted for population, this represents a drop from 3.01 burglaries per 1,000 people in 2010 to 0.87 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries remained relatively stable, fluctuating between 0.04% and 0.11% over the years, with 0.06% in 2022. This substantial decrease in burglaries, outpacing the population decline, suggests improved security measures or changing criminal behaviors in the area.
Larceny-theft incidents also decreased, though less dramatically than burglaries. In 2010, there were 76 larceny-thefts, which reduced to 63 in 2022, a 17.11% decrease. The rate per 1,000 people changed from 5.32 in 2010 to 4.59 in 2022. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft numbers remained relatively consistent, ranging from 0.04% to 0.07%, ending at 0.06% in 2022. This trend indicates a moderate improvement in preventing petty thefts and shoplifting incidents.
Motor vehicle theft showed more volatility but ultimately decreased. From 3 incidents in 2010 to 2 in 2022, there was a 33.33% reduction. The rate per 1,000 people changed minimally from 0.21 in 2010 to 0.15 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts fluctuated between 0.01% and 0.05%, ending at 0.01% in 2022. This suggests that while motor vehicle theft is not a major concern for the city, it remains a persistent issue.
Arson cases in the city were sporadic and infrequent. There was 1 case in 2010, peaking at 3 cases in 2011, and no reported cases in several years including 2022. The city's contribution to state arson cases ranged from 0% to 0.15%, indicating that arson is not a significant ongoing problem in the area.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a relationship between the declining population density and the overall decrease in property crimes. The population density dropped from 571 per square mile in 2010 to 549 in 2022, coinciding with the general downward trend in crime rates. Additionally, the rise in median income from $70,648 in 2013 to $79,880 in 2022 may have contributed to the reduction in property crimes, potentially due to improved economic conditions.
Applying predictive models based on these trends, we can forecast that by 2029, property crime rates are likely to continue their downward trajectory. Burglaries could potentially decrease to around 8-10 incidents per year, larceny-thefts might stabilize around 55-60 cases annually, and motor vehicle thefts could remain low at 1-2 incidents per year. Arson cases are expected to remain rare or non-existent.
In summary, New Franklin has experienced a notable decline in property crime rates over the past decade, outpacing its population decrease. This trend, coupled with rising median incomes, suggests an improving quality of life and security for residents. The city's consistently low contribution to state crime figures further underscores its relatively safe environment. As the community continues to evolve, maintaining these positive trends will be crucial for sustained safety and well-being.
