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Property Crime Trends in New Brunswick: A Decade of Change at Rutgers University's Home
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
New Brunswick, a vibrant city in New Jersey known for being the home of Rutgers University, has experienced notable changes in its property crime landscape over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes in the city decreased by 11.7%, from 1,372 to 1,211 incidents. This decline occurred alongside a modest population growth of 3.95%, from 53,599 to 55,718 residents during the same period.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a significant downward trend. In 2010, there were 410 burglaries, which decreased to 152 in 2022, marking a 62.9% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 7.65 per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 2.73 per 1,000 in 2022. Interestingly, despite this decrease in absolute numbers, the city's share of state burglaries increased from 2.37% in 2010 to 3.19% in 2022. This suggests that while the city has made progress in reducing burglaries, the decline has been less pronounced compared to the state average.
Larceny theft, the most common property crime in the city, has also seen a decline, though less dramatic than burglary. In 2010, there were 842 larceny thefts, which increased to 1,102 in 2011 before gradually decreasing to 959 in 2022, representing a 13% overall increase from 2010. The rate per 1,000 residents rose from 15.71 in 2010 to 17.21 in 2022. The city's share of state larceny thefts increased from 1.78% to 2.65% over this period, indicating that the city's larceny theft rates have not decreased as rapidly as the state average.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has remained relatively stable, with some fluctuations. There were 120 incidents in 2010, dropping to a low of 65 in 2019, before rising to 100 in 2022. This represents a 16.7% decrease over the 12-year period. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 2.24 in 2010 to 1.79 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased slightly from 1.21% to 1.53%, suggesting that the city's efforts to combat this crime have been somewhat more effective than the state average.
Arson cases in the city have fluctuated over the years, with no clear trend. The number of arsons ranged from a high of 15 in 2016 to a low of 0 in 2019. In 2022, there were 3 reported arsons, compared to 10 in 2010. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 0.19 in 2010 to 0.05 in 2022. The city's share of state arsons varied widely, from 2.21% in 2010 to a peak of 6.73% in 2016, before settling at 2.07% in 2022.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. There appears to be a moderate inverse correlation between median income and property crime rates. As the median income increased from $46,361 in 2013 to $49,761 in 2022, overall property crime rates decreased. Additionally, there seems to be a weak positive correlation between population density and property crime rates, with both showing slight increases over the studied period.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continuation of the overall declining trend in property crimes. Burglaries are expected to decrease further, potentially reaching around 100 incidents annually. Larceny theft is projected to stabilize around 900 incidents per year. Motor vehicle thefts may see a slight increase, potentially reaching 110-120 incidents annually. Arson cases are expected to remain low, fluctuating between 2-5 incidents per year.
In summary, New Brunswick has made significant strides in reducing property crimes over the past decade, particularly in burglary prevention. While larceny theft remains a challenge, the overall trend is positive. The city's efforts in crime reduction, coupled with economic improvements, have contributed to a safer environment for its residents. However, the increasing share of state crime percentages in some categories suggests that continued focus on crime prevention strategies will be crucial for maintaining and improving public safety in the coming years.
