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Property Crime Trends in New Brockton: A Decade of Decline Amid Population Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
New Brockton, Alabama, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes fluctuated, starting at 28 in 2010, peaking at 48 in 2012, and then declining to 21 in 2022, representing a 25% decrease over the entire period. During this same timeframe, the population grew from 3,810 in 2010 to 4,084 in 2022, an increase of about 7.2%.
Burglary trends in the city show a notable decline over time. In 2010, there were 14 burglaries, which rose to 21 in 2012 before steadily decreasing to 5 in 2022, a 64.3% reduction from 2010 to 2022. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 3.67 in 2010 to 1.22 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries remained relatively stable, fluctuating between 0.03% and 0.07% throughout the period. This significant reduction in burglaries suggests improved home security measures or more effective law enforcement strategies in the community.
Larceny-theft incidents showed more volatility but an overall downward trend. Starting at 12 cases in 2010, it peaked at 23 in 2012 and 2014, before declining to 13 in 2022, a slight increase of 8.3% from 2010. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased marginally from 3.15 in 2010 to 3.18 in 2022. The city's proportion of state larceny-thefts remained low, ranging between 0.01% and 0.03%. This relative stability in larceny-theft rates, despite population growth, indicates consistent community vigilance and law enforcement efforts.
Motor vehicle theft in the city showed a slight upward trend. From 2 incidents in 2010, it increased to 3 in 2022, a 50% rise. The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 0.52 in 2010 to 0.73 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased from 0.03% to 0.04% over this period. While the absolute numbers remain low, this trend warrants attention from local authorities to prevent further increases.
Regarding arson, the data is largely unavailable, with only two years (2011 and 2022) reporting zero incidents. This lack of data makes it challenging to draw meaningful conclusions about arson trends in the city.
A notable correlation exists between property crime trends and median income. As the median income rose from $45,715 in 2013 to $65,696 in 2022, a 43.7% increase, total property crimes decreased by 46.2% over the same period. This inverse relationship suggests that improving economic conditions may contribute to reduced property crime rates.
Applying predictive models based on the observed trends, it's projected that by 2029, New Brockton could see further reductions in overall property crime. Burglaries might decrease to around 2-3 incidents annually, while larceny-theft could stabilize at about 10-12 cases per year. Motor vehicle thefts may remain steady at 2-3 incidents annually, assuming current trends continue.
In summary, New Brockton has experienced a general decline in property crime rates over the past decade, particularly in burglaries, despite population growth. The inverse correlation between rising median income and decreasing property crime rates suggests improving economic conditions may play a role in enhancing community safety. While motor vehicle thefts show a slight increase, the overall trend is positive, indicating effective community and law enforcement efforts in maintaining public safety.
