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Property Crime Trends in New Boston, Texas: A Decade of Decline Amidst Population Decrease
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
New Boston, located in Texas, has experienced notable fluctuations in property crime rates over the years, set against a backdrop of changing population dynamics. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased by 36.5%, from 208 to 132 incidents. During this same period, the city's population declined by 6.4%, from 8,457 to 7,915 residents.
Burglary trends in the city have shown a significant downward trajectory. In 2010, there were 54 burglaries reported, which decreased to 15 by 2022, representing a 72.2% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 6.39 per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 1.89 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's contribution to state-wide burglaries has remained relatively stable, fluctuating between 0.01% and 0.04% over the years, indicating that the local trend aligns with broader state patterns.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, has also seen a decline. In 2010, 143 incidents were reported, compared to 107 in 2022, a 25.2% decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents dropped from 16.91 in 2010 to 13.52 in 2022. The city's share of state-wide larceny-theft incidents has remained consistent, ranging from 0.02% to 0.05%, suggesting that local efforts to combat this crime have been relatively effective compared to state-wide trends.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has shown more variability. From 11 incidents in 2010, it decreased to a low of 2 in 2018 and 2019, but then increased to 10 in 2022. This represents a 9.1% decrease over the entire period. The rate per 1,000 residents changed from 1.30 in 2010 to 1.26 in 2022. The city's contribution to state-wide motor vehicle thefts has fluctuated between 0.0% and 0.03%, indicating that local trends do not significantly impact state-wide figures.
Arson incidents in the city have been sporadic. There was 1 reported case in 2010, rising to 3 in 2011, then dropping to zero for several years before reappearing with 2 cases in both 2020 and 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 0.12 in 2010 to 0.25 in 2022. The city's contribution to state-wide arson cases has been volatile, ranging from 0% to 0.09%, suggesting that individual incidents can significantly impact the local percentage due to the low overall numbers.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a relationship between the declining property crime rates and the city's decreasing population density. As the population density fell from 1,992 per square mile in 2010 to 1,865 in 2022, overall property crime incidents also decreased. Additionally, there seems to be an inverse correlation between median income and property crime rates. As the median income increased from $53,899 in 2013 to $62,913 in 2022, property crime rates generally declined.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends, we anticipate a continued gradual decrease in overall property crime incidents. By 2029, five years from now, we project that the total number of property crimes could fall to approximately 110-120 incidents per year, assuming current trends and interventions remain consistent.
In summary, New Boston has experienced a general decline in property crime rates across most categories over the past decade, despite some fluctuations. This positive trend, coupled with rising median incomes and stable demographic composition, suggests an improving public safety environment. However, ongoing vigilance and targeted interventions will be crucial to maintain and further improve these trends in the coming years.
