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Property Crime Trends in Navasota, Texas: A Decade of Improvement Amid Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Navasota, located in Texas, has experienced notable fluctuations in property crime rates over the past decade, alongside significant population growth. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased by 9.05%, from 221 to 201 incidents. During this same period, the population grew by 24.12%, from 11,033 to 13,694 residents, indicating a relative improvement in property crime rates when considering the population increase.
Burglary trends in the city have shown a notable decline over time. In 2010, there were 44 burglaries, which increased to a peak of 92 in 2011 before generally decreasing to 51 in 2022. This represents a 15.91% decrease from 2010 to 2022. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 people decreased from 3.99 in 2010 to 3.72 in 2022, a 6.77% reduction. Interestingly, despite this overall decrease, the city's share of state burglaries increased from 0.02% in 2010 to 0.06% in 2022, suggesting that burglary rates may have decreased more rapidly in other parts of the state.
Larceny theft trends have shown more volatility but an overall decrease. In 2010, there were 170 larceny thefts, which fluctuated over the years before settling at 132 in 2022, representing a 22.35% decrease. The rate per 1,000 people decreased from 15.41 in 2010 to 9.64 in 2022, a substantial 37.44% reduction. The city's share of state larceny thefts remained relatively stable, changing from 0.03% in 2010 to 0.03% in 2022, indicating that the local trend aligns with state-wide patterns.
Motor vehicle theft has seen an increase over the period. From 7 incidents in 2010, it rose to 18 in 2022, a 157.14% increase. However, when adjusted for population growth, the rate per 1,000 people increased from 0.63 in 2010 to 1.31 in 2022, a 107.94% increase. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts rose from 0.01% to 0.02%, suggesting a slightly faster increase compared to the state average.
Arson cases have fluctuated but remained relatively low throughout the period. There were 2 cases in 2010, which dropped to 0 in several years, before returning to 2 cases in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people remained essentially unchanged at 0.15 in both 2010 and 2022. However, the city's share of state arson cases increased from 0.05% to 0.09%, indicating a relative increase compared to state trends.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between property crime rates and median income. As median income increased from $48,790 in 2013 to $69,052 in 2022, overall property crime rates tended to decrease. Additionally, there seems to be a weak positive correlation between the percentage of white residents and property crime rates, with both showing slight increases in recent years.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next seven years (up to 2029, which is five years from now), we anticipate a slight increase in overall property crimes. Based on recent trends, burglaries are expected to stabilize around 55-60 cases per year, larceny thefts may increase to approximately 140-150 cases annually, and motor vehicle thefts could reach 35-40 incidents per year. Arson cases are predicted to remain low, likely not exceeding 3 cases per year.
In summary, Navasota has experienced a complex evolution of property crime rates against a backdrop of significant population growth. While some categories like burglary and larceny theft have shown improvements, others like motor vehicle theft have increased. The city's share of state crime rates has generally increased across categories, suggesting that local trends may be diverging somewhat from state-wide patterns. These findings highlight the importance of targeted crime prevention strategies and continued monitoring of socioeconomic factors that may influence crime rates in Navasota.
