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Property Crime Trends in Nashua: A Decade of Significant Decline in the Gateway City
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Nashua, New Hampshire, a vibrant city known for its rich history and technological innovation, has experienced significant changes in property crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes in Nashua decreased dramatically by 55.95%, from 2,209 to 973 incidents. This substantial reduction occurred alongside a population growth of 5.3%, from 86,570 to 91,162 residents during the same period.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a remarkable downward trend. In 2010, there were 398 burglaries, which plummeted to 63 by 2022, representing an 84.17% decrease. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 4.60 per 1,000 people in 2010 to 0.69 per 1,000 in 2022. Interestingly, while the number of burglaries decreased, Nashua's share of state burglaries fluctuated. In 2010, the city accounted for 16.6% of state burglaries, dropping to 9.19% in 2015, but rising again to 11.37% by 2022. This suggests that while Nashua has made significant progress in reducing burglaries, its improvements have not consistently outpaced those of the state as a whole.
Larceny theft, the most common property crime in Nashua, also exhibited a substantial decline. In 2010, there were 1,744 larceny thefts, which decreased to 845 by 2022, a 51.55% reduction. The rate per 1,000 people dropped from 20.15 in 2010 to 9.27 in 2022. The city's share of state larceny thefts fluctuated over the years, starting at 16.55% in 2010, peaking at 17.25% in 2012, and then declining to 12.31% by 2022. This indicates that Nashua's efforts to combat larceny theft have been largely successful, outpacing improvements at the state level in recent years.
Motor vehicle theft in the city showed a less dramatic but still significant decrease. From 67 incidents in 2010, the number dropped to 65 in 2022, a 2.99% reduction. When adjusted for population, the rate decreased from 0.77 per 1,000 people in 2010 to 0.71 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts fluctuated considerably, from 16.96% in 2010 to a high of 19.44% in 2012, before falling to 12.1% in 2022. This suggests that while Nashua has made some progress in reducing motor vehicle thefts, the improvements have been less consistent than in other property crime categories.
Arson cases in Nashua have shown significant volatility over the years. In 2010, there were 29 arson incidents, which decreased to 9 in 2022, a 68.97% reduction. The rate per 1,000 people fell from 0.34 in 2010 to 0.10 in 2022. However, the city's share of state arsons has fluctuated dramatically, from 16.86% in 2010 to a low of 7.32% in 2013, before rising again to 14.29% in 2022. This volatility suggests that arson remains a challenging crime to predict and prevent consistently.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals interesting patterns. As the median income in Nashua increased from $62,808 in 2013 to $96,911 in 2022, a 54.3% rise, property crime rates showed a consistent decline. This suggests a strong negative correlation between income levels and property crime rates in the city.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends, it's projected that by 2029 (five years from now), Nashua could see a further reduction in overall property crimes by approximately 20-25%. Burglaries are expected to continue their sharp decline, potentially reaching fewer than 40 incidents annually. Larceny theft is projected to decrease to around 700 incidents per year, while motor vehicle theft may stabilize at around 60-65 cases annually. Arson cases are predicted to remain low but volatile, potentially averaging 5-10 incidents per year.
In conclusion, Nashua has made remarkable strides in reducing property crime over the past decade, with significant improvements across all categories. The city's success in combating burglary and larceny theft is particularly noteworthy, outpacing state-level improvements in recent years. These positive trends, coupled with rising median incomes, suggest that Nashua is becoming an increasingly safe and prosperous community. As the city continues to grow and evolve, maintaining these crime reduction strategies will be crucial for ensuring the ongoing safety and well-being of its residents.
