Motor vehicle theft showed fluctuations but an overall downward trend. From 22 incidents in 2010, it decreased to 12 in 2018, a 45.5% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 2.10 in 2010 to 1.16 in 2018. Interestingly, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts decreased from 0.21% to 0.14%, indicating that while improvements were made, they were not as dramatic as in other crime categories.

Arson cases in the city showed significant volatility. From 2 incidents in 2010, it peaked at 10 in 2017 before dropping to 1 in 2018. The rate per 1,000 residents fluctuated accordingly, from 0.19 in 2010 to 0.97 in 2017, then 0.10 in 2018. The city's proportion of state arson cases varied widely, from 0.33% in 2010 to a high of 1.24% in 2017, before falling to 0.12% in 2018. This volatility suggests that arson incidents, while rare, can have a significant impact on overall crime statistics in a small city.

Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates. As the median income rose from $35,571 in 2013 to $41,988 in 2018, total property crimes decreased from 290 to 154. Additionally, there's a notable correlation between the increase in racial diversity and the decrease in property crimes. As the white population percentage decreased from 94% in 2013 to 91% in 2018, with corresponding increases in Hispanic and Black populations, property crime rates continued to fall.

Applying predictive models based on these trends, we can forecast that by 2029, property crime rates in Nanticoke are likely to continue their downward trajectory, albeit at a slower pace. Total property crimes could potentially decrease by another 20-25%, reaching around 115-120 incidents annually. However, this prediction assumes current socio-economic trends and law enforcement strategies remain consistent.

In summary, Nanticoke has demonstrated a remarkable improvement in property crime rates across all categories over the past decade. The most significant reductions were seen in burglary and larceny-theft, while motor vehicle theft and arson showed more variable trends. These improvements occurred against a backdrop of increasing median income and growing racial diversity, suggesting a complex interplay of socio-economic factors contributing to crime reduction. As the city continues to evolve, maintaining these positive trends will likely require ongoing community engagement and adaptive law enforcement strategies.