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Property Crime Trends in Mustang Ridge, Texas: A Decade of Growth and Challenges
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Mustang Ridge, located in Texas, has experienced significant changes in property crime trends alongside substantial population growth over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes increased from 2 to 30, representing a 1400% increase. During the same period, the population grew from 6,942 to 11,081, a 59.6% increase.
Burglary trends in the city have fluctuated over time. In 2010, there were 2 burglaries, which increased to 16 in 2012, representing a peak in the data set. However, by 2022, burglaries had decreased to 4 incidents. When considering population trends, the burglary rate per 1,000 people decreased from 0.29 in 2010 to 0.36 in 2022, despite the population growth. The city's contribution to state burglary statistics remained relatively low, ranging from 0% to 0.01% over the years, indicating that burglary in this city has a minimal impact on state-wide figures.
Larceny-theft incidents have shown an overall increasing trend. From 0 incidents in 2010, larceny-theft cases rose to 17 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people increased from 0 to 1.53 over this period. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft statistics remained consistently low, at 0% to 0.01%, suggesting that while larceny-theft has increased locally, it still represents a small fraction of state-wide incidents.
Motor vehicle theft has seen a significant increase over time. From 0 incidents in 2010, motor vehicle thefts rose to 9 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people increased from 0 to 0.81. Notably, the city's contribution to state motor vehicle theft statistics increased from 0% to 0.01% by 2022, indicating a growing local issue that is beginning to have a slight impact on state figures.
Arson incidents have been sporadic and infrequent. The only reported arson cases were in 2016, with 2 incidents. This translates to a rate of 0.25 per 1,000 people for that year. The city's contribution to state arson statistics peaked at 0.08% in 2016 but returned to 0% in subsequent years, suggesting that arson is not a persistent problem in the area.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and other factors reveals some interesting patterns. There appears to be a moderate positive correlation between population density and property crime rates. As the population density increased from 1,861 per square mile in 2010 to 2,971 in 2022, property crimes generally increased as well. Additionally, there seems to be a correlation between the changing racial demographics and property crime trends. As the Hispanic population percentage increased from 63% in 2013 to 84% in 2022, property crimes also showed an upward trend.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued gradual increase in overall property crime incidents. Based on current trends, it's projected that by 2029, the city may experience approximately 35-40 property crime incidents annually. This forecast takes into account the historical growth rate of property crimes and the projected population increase.
In summary, Mustang Ridge has experienced a significant increase in property crimes over the past decade, particularly in larceny-theft and motor vehicle theft. While burglary rates have fluctuated, they remain relatively low compared to other property crimes. The city's contribution to state-wide crime statistics remains minimal, but the local increase in property crimes, especially when considered alongside population growth and changing demographics, suggests a need for targeted crime prevention strategies. As the city continues to grow, monitoring these trends and implementing proactive measures will be crucial in maintaining community safety and quality of life for residents of Mustang Ridge.
