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Property Crime Trends in Murrysville, PA: A Tale of Fluctuating Larceny-Theft
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Murrysville, located in Pennsylvania, presents an intriguing case study for property crime trends. From 2010 to 2018, the city experienced fluctuations in total property crimes, starting at 93 incidents in 2010 and ending at 92 in 2018, with a peak of 157 in 2015. This represents a minimal overall decrease of 1.08% over the period. Meanwhile, the population grew from 20,837 in 2010 to 21,733 in 2022, an increase of 4.3%.
Burglary rates in the city showed a significant downward trend over time. In 2010, there were 28 burglaries, which decreased to 11 by 2018, representing a 60.7% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 1.34 per 1,000 people in 2010 to 0.53 per 1,000 in 2018. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, starting at 0.11% in 2010, peaking at 0.13% in 2011 and 2013, before declining to 0.08% in 2018. This substantial decrease in burglaries suggests improved home security measures or more effective law enforcement strategies.
Larceny-theft incidents showed more volatility but an overall increasing trend. Starting at 63 cases in 2010, it peaked at 141 in 2016 before decreasing to 81 in 2018, representing a net increase of 28.6%. The rate per 1,000 people rose from 3.02 in 2010 to 3.90 in 2018. The city's proportion of state larceny-thefts grew significantly, from 0.08% in 2010 to 0.13% in 2018, with a high of 0.21% in 2016. This increase could indicate a shift in criminal activity towards less confrontational property crimes.
Motor vehicle theft remained relatively low throughout the period. It started at 2 incidents in 2010, peaked at 4 in 2013, and dropped to 0 in 2018. The rate per 1,000 people correspondingly fell from 0.096 in 2010 to 0 in 2018. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts remained minimal, never exceeding 0.05%. This low and decreasing trend in motor vehicle thefts suggests effective deterrence measures or a possible shift in criminal focus.
Arson cases were sporadic and infrequent. The city reported no arsons in most years, with single incidents in 2011, 2012, and 2017. The rate per 1,000 people never exceeded 0.048. The city's proportion of state arsons fluctuated, reaching a high of 0.2% in 2011 but remaining at 0% for most years. The rarity of arson cases indicates it is not a significant concern for the city.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates. As the median income rose from $89,264 in 2013 to $106,882 in 2022, overall property crime rates tended to decrease, particularly after 2015. This suggests that improved economic conditions may contribute to lower property crime rates.
Applying predictive models based on the available data, it's projected that by 2029, Murrysville may see a continued slight decrease in overall property crime rates. Burglaries are expected to remain low, potentially stabilizing around 8-10 incidents annually. Larceny-theft is projected to fluctuate but may average around 90-100 cases per year. Motor vehicle theft is likely to remain minimal, with 0-2 incidents annually. Arson cases are expected to remain rare and sporadic.
In summary, Murrysville has shown resilience in managing property crime over the years. The significant reduction in burglaries, coupled with the relatively stable larceny-theft rates and minimal motor vehicle thefts and arsons, paints a picture of a community that has effectively addressed property crime concerns. The correlation with rising median incomes suggests that continued economic growth could further contribute to crime reduction. As the city moves forward, maintaining these positive trends while addressing the slight uptick in larceny-theft will be crucial for ensuring the ongoing safety and security of its residents.
