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Property Crime Trends in Murphysboro: A Decade of Significant Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Murphysboro, located in Illinois, has experienced significant fluctuations in property crime rates over the past decade, set against a backdrop of modest population changes. From 2011 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased by 56.6%, from 459 to 199 incidents. During this same period, the population declined by 6.6%, from 9,720 to 9,083 residents.
Burglary trends in the city have shown a notable decline over time. In 2011, there were 106 burglaries reported, which decreased to 26 in 2022, representing a 75.5% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 10.9 per 1,000 residents in 2011 to 2.9 per 1,000 in 2022. Interestingly, despite this decrease in absolute numbers, the city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, ranging from 0.13% in 2019 to 0.3% in 2020. This suggests that while local efforts may have been effective in reducing burglaries, the city's relative contribution to state totals remained somewhat volatile.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the area, also saw a significant decrease. In 2011, there were 353 larceny-theft incidents, which dropped to 166 in 2022, a 53% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 36.3 in 2011 to 18.3 in 2022. The city's share of state larceny-theft incidents decreased from 0.21% in 2011 to 0.16% in 2022, indicating that the local reduction outpaced the state-wide trend.
Motor vehicle theft trends present an interesting contrast. In 2011 and 2015, there were no reported motor vehicle thefts. However, by 2022, this number had increased to 7 incidents. While this represents a significant percentage increase, the actual numbers remain relatively low. The rate per 1,000 residents went from 0 in 2011 to 0.77 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts also increased from 0% to 0.02% during this period, suggesting a localized increase in this type of crime.
Arson incidents in the city have been sporadic and relatively rare. There was 1 reported case in 2011, peaking at 6 cases in 2012, and then dropping to 0 reported cases from 2015 to 2022. This volatility makes it difficult to establish a clear trend, but the overall direction appears to be downward. The city's share of state arson cases fluctuated accordingly, from 0.11% in 2011 to 0.56% in 2012, before settling at 0% in recent years.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. There appears to be a moderate negative correlation between median income and property crime rates. As the median income increased from $36,023 in 2013 to $44,490 in 2022, overall property crime rates tended to decrease. Additionally, there seems to be a weak positive correlation between the decreasing percentage of owner-occupied housing (from 63% in 2013 to 56% in 2022) and the reduction in property crimes, particularly burglaries.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continuation of the overall downward trend in total property crimes, albeit at a slower rate. Burglaries and larceny-theft are expected to continue declining, while motor vehicle thefts may see a slight increase if current trends persist. Arson incidents are predicted to remain low and sporadic.
In summary, Murphysboro has experienced a significant overall reduction in property crimes over the past decade, particularly in burglaries and larceny-theft. This positive trend has occurred despite slight population decline and changes in housing occupancy. The city's evolving demographic composition and economic conditions appear to have influenced these crime trends, highlighting the complex interplay between socioeconomic factors and criminal activity in urban environments.
