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Property Crime Trends in Murfreesboro: A Decade of Decline Amid Population Changes
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Murfreesboro, located in North Carolina, has experienced fluctuating property crime rates alongside population changes over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, total property crimes decreased from 61 to 32, representing a 47.5% reduction. During this same period, the population decreased slightly from 6,294 in 2010 to 5,533 in 2022, a 12.1% decline.
Burglary trends in the city have shown significant variability. In 2010, there were 16 burglaries, which peaked at 36 in 2014, before decreasing to 5 in 2022. This represents a 68.8% decrease from 2010 to 2022. When considering population trends, the burglary rate per 1,000 people decreased from 2.54 in 2010 to 0.90 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, reaching a high of 0.11% in 2019 before dropping to 0.02% in 2022. This suggests that while burglaries have decreased overall, their prevalence relative to the state has varied considerably.
Larceny-theft incidents also demonstrated a downward trend. From 42 cases in 2010, the number decreased to 25 in 2022, a 40.5% reduction. The rate per 1,000 people fell from 6.67 in 2010 to 4.52 in 2022. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft cases remained relatively stable, hovering around 0.03% to 0.05% throughout the period. This indicates that the city's larceny-theft trends generally aligned with statewide patterns.
Motor vehicle theft showed more volatility. Starting at 3 incidents in 2010, it reached a low of 1 in 2011 and 2013, before peaking at 6 in 2020, and then decreasing to 2 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people increased slightly from 0.48 in 2010 to 0.36 in 2022. Notably, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased from 0.03% in 2010 to 0.05% in 2020, before dropping to 0.01% in 2022. This suggests that while motor vehicle thefts remained relatively low, they became a more significant proportion of state incidents in certain years.
Arson incidents in Murfreesboro were consistently reported as zero throughout the entire period from 2010 to 2022. This suggests either an absence of arson crimes or potential underreporting. The consistent zero figures make it impossible to calculate meaningful trends or comparisons to state percentages.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between property crime rates and median income. As median income increased from $30,445 in 2015 to $40,916 in 2022, total property crimes decreased from 75 in 2014 to 32 in 2022. However, this correlation is not perfect, as there were fluctuations in both income and crime rates during this period.
Applying predictive models based on the observed trends, it's projected that by 2029, property crime rates in Murfreesboro may continue to decrease slightly. The total number of property crimes could potentially drop to around 25-30 annually, with burglaries possibly reducing to 3-4 cases, larceny-theft to 20-22 cases, and motor vehicle theft remaining stable at 1-2 incidents per year.
In summary, Murfreesboro has experienced an overall decline in property crime rates from 2010 to 2022, with notable reductions in burglary and larceny-theft. The city's contribution to state crime figures has generally decreased or remained stable across most categories. These trends, coupled with the slight population decrease and fluctuating median income, suggest a complex interplay of factors influencing crime rates in the community. The projected continued decrease in property crimes over the next five years indicates a potentially improving safety situation for residents of Murfreesboro.
