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Property Crime Trends in Mountain Grove, Missouri: A Decade of Declining Incidents
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Mountain Grove, located in Missouri, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends. From 2011 to 2022, the city experienced a significant decrease in total property crimes, dropping from 203 incidents in 2011 to 87 in 2022, representing a 57.1% reduction. During this same period, the population decreased from 7,415 in 2011 to 6,589 in 2022, a 11.1% decline.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a notable downward trend over the years. In 2011, there were 33 burglaries reported, which decreased to 15 in 2022, marking a 54.5% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents fell from 4.45 in 2011 to 2.28 in 2022. Interestingly, despite this decrease in raw numbers, the city's share of state burglaries remained relatively stable, fluctuating between 0.06% and 0.11% over the period, suggesting that the decline in burglaries was part of a broader statewide trend.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, also saw a substantial decrease. In 2011, there were 161 reported incidents, which dropped to 64 in 2022, a 60.2% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 21.71 in 2011 to 9.71 in 2022. The city's share of state larceny-theft incidents fluctuated between 0.07% and 0.14% during this period, indicating that the local trend generally aligned with state patterns.
Motor vehicle theft trends showed more volatility. The number of incidents decreased from 9 in 2011 to 8 in 2022, a modest 11.1% reduction. However, when adjusted for population, the rate per 1,000 residents actually increased slightly from 1.21 in 2011 to 1.21 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts fluctuated between 0.01% and 0.08%, suggesting that local trends did not always align with state patterns.
Arson incidents were rare in the city, with most years reporting zero cases. However, there was a notable increase in recent years, with one reported case each in 2018, 2021, and 2022. This resulted in a rate of 0.15 arsons per 1,000 residents in 2022. The city's share of state arsons also increased, reaching 0.16% in 2022, indicating a disproportionate rise compared to state trends.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As the population density decreased from 1,846 people per square mile in 2011 to 1,641 in 2022, property crime rates generally declined. This suggests a possible link between population density and crime rates. Additionally, there appears to be an inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates. As median income increased from $29,143 in 2015 to $39,918 in 2022, property crime rates decreased, potentially indicating that improved economic conditions may contribute to lower crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued gradual decline in overall property crime rates. However, this projection should be interpreted cautiously due to the potential impact of unforeseen economic or social factors.
In conclusion, Mountain Grove has experienced a significant overall reduction in property crime rates from 2011 to 2022, with notable decreases in burglary and larceny-theft. The trends in motor vehicle theft and arson present areas for continued vigilance. The correlation between declining crime rates, decreasing population density, and rising median income provides valuable insights for urban planning and crime prevention strategies in the city.
