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Property Crime Trends in Mountain Brook, Alabama: A Decade of Improvement in an Affluent Community
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Mountain Brook, located in Alabama, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends. With a population of 29,640 in 2022 and spanning 12.84 square miles, this affluent suburb has experienced notable fluctuations in property crime rates over the years. From 2011 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased by 42.5%, from 358 to 206 incidents. During this same period, the population grew by 8.4%, from 27,347 to 29,640 residents.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a significant downward trend. In 2011, there were 75 burglaries reported, which decreased to 36 by 2022, representing a 52% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 2.74 per 1,000 residents in 2011 to 1.21 per 1,000 in 2022. Interestingly, despite this decrease in absolute numbers, the city's share of state burglaries increased from 0.2% in 2011 to 0.32% in 2022. This suggests that while the city has made progress in reducing burglaries, the improvement outpaced the state average.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the area, also showed a substantial decrease. In 2011, there were 276 larceny-theft incidents, which dropped to 161 in 2022, a 41.7% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 10.09 in 2011 to 5.43 in 2022. However, similar to burglary, the city's share of state larceny-theft incidents increased from 0.31% to 0.35% over this period, indicating that the reduction in larceny-theft was more pronounced here than in other parts of the state.
Motor vehicle theft rates fluctuated over the years but showed an overall increase. In 2011, there were 7 reported incidents, which rose to 9 in 2022, a 28.6% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents increased slightly from 0.26 in 2011 to 0.30 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts also increased from 0.08% to 0.13%, suggesting a growing concentration of these crimes relative to the state average.
Arson data is limited, with only sporadic reporting over the years. In 2011, there was 1 reported case of arson, and this number remained unchanged in 2022. However, the city's share of state arson cases increased from 0.18% in 2011 to 0.19% in 2022, indicating that arson became relatively more concentrated in the area compared to the rest of the state.
Examining correlations between crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The city's median income increased from $128,554 in 2013 to $136,542 in 2022, coinciding with the overall decrease in property crimes. This suggests a potential negative correlation between income levels and property crime rates. Additionally, the percentage of owner-occupied housing units increased from 79% in 2013 to 84% in 2022, which may have contributed to the reduction in burglaries and larceny-theft.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued overall decline in property crimes. Based on the historical data, we can project that by 2029: Total property crimes may decrease to around 180-190 incidents per year. Burglaries could potentially drop to 25-30 cases annually. Larceny-theft might decrease to approximately 140-150 incidents per year. Motor vehicle theft rates may stabilize around 8-10 cases annually. Arson cases are likely to remain rare, with 0-1 incidents per year.
In summary, Mountain Brook has demonstrated a remarkable improvement in overall property crime rates, particularly in burglary and larceny-theft. This positive trend coincides with increasing median income and home ownership rates, suggesting a potential link between economic stability and reduced property crime. However, the slight increase in motor vehicle thefts and the city's growing share of state crime figures in certain categories indicate areas that may require continued attention from law enforcement and community leaders. The projected continuation of these trends paints an optimistic picture for the city's future safety and security.
