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Property Crime Trends in Mount Vernon, Alabama: A Decade of Decline Amid Population Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Mount Vernon, Alabama, a small town with a rich history, has experienced significant fluctuations in property crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased by 60.76%, from 79 to 31 incidents. During this same period, the population increased by 15.85%, from 2,933 to 3,398 residents, presenting an interesting contrast between crime reduction and population growth.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a notable decline over the years. In 2010, there were 31 burglaries reported, which decreased to 19 in 2022, representing a 38.71% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 10.57 per 1,000 people in 2010 to 5.59 per 1,000 in 2022. However, the city's share of state burglaries increased from 0.13% in 2010 to 0.17% in 2022, indicating that while local burglaries decreased, they did not fall as rapidly as the state average. This suggests that while progress has been made, there's still room for improvement in burglary prevention strategies.
Larceny-theft incidents have also decreased significantly. In 2010, 43 cases were reported, compared to 11 in 2022, marking a 74.42% reduction. The rate per 1,000 people dropped from 14.66 in 2010 to 3.24 in 2022. Interestingly, the city's contribution to state larceny-theft figures decreased from 0.06% to 0.02% over this period, indicating that the local reduction outpaced the state average. This substantial improvement in larceny-theft rates suggests effective local strategies in combating this type of crime.
Motor vehicle theft showed a dramatic reduction, from 5 incidents in 2010 to just 1 in 2022, an 80% decrease. The rate per 1,000 people fell from 1.70 to 0.29. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts also decreased from 0.08% to 0.01%, highlighting a significant local improvement that outperformed state trends. This remarkable decrease could be attributed to improved vehicle security measures or more effective law enforcement strategies.
Arson data is limited, with only two years reporting incidents: 1 case in 2011 and 1 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people remained relatively stable at 0.32 in 2011 and 0.29 in 2022. The city's contribution to state arson cases increased from 0.18% in 2011 to 0.19% in 2022, suggesting that while arson remains rare, it hasn't improved relative to state trends.
A strong correlation is observed between the decrease in property crimes and the increase in median income. From 2013 to 2022, median income rose from $34,379 to $49,333, a 43.5% increase, while property crimes decreased by 68.37%. This suggests that improved economic conditions may contribute to lower crime rates. Additionally, there's a notable correlation between the increase in home ownership rates (from 73% in 2018 to 85% in 2022) and the continued decrease in property crimes, indicating that higher community investment may lead to reduced criminal activity.
Applying predictive models based on these trends, it's projected that by 2029 (five years from now), property crimes could potentially decrease by another 30-40%, assuming current socioeconomic trends continue. This could result in approximately 18-22 total property crimes annually.
In conclusion, Mount Vernon has made significant strides in reducing property crime rates across all categories, particularly in larceny-theft and motor vehicle theft. These improvements, coupled with positive trends in income and home ownership, suggest a strengthening community fabric. While challenges remain, especially in maintaining progress against burglaries, the overall trajectory indicates a safer, more prosperous future for the town's residents.
