Motor vehicle theft in the city has shown fluctuations but with an overall increase. In 2010, there were 6 reported incidents, which increased to 7 in 2022, a 16.67% rise. The rate per 1,000 residents increased slightly from 1.93 in 2010 to 2.22 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts rose from 0.03% in 2010 to 0.05% in 2021, before dropping back to 0.03% in 2022, indicating that this crime type has become a more significant issue relative to state averages in recent years.

Arson incidents in the city have been sporadic, with several years reporting zero cases. The highest number of arsons reported was 3 in both 2012 and 2015, representing 0.19% of the state's total in those years. By 2022, there was 1 reported arson, accounting for 0.1% of the state's total. The rate per 1,000 residents fluctuated accordingly, peaking at 0.98 in 2012 and 2015, and settling at 0.32 in 2022. These figures suggest that arson is not a consistent problem in the city but rather an occasional occurrence.

Examining correlations between property crime trends and socioeconomic factors reveals some interesting patterns. There appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates. As the median income increased from $25,641 in 2013 to $37,178 in 2022, a 45% rise, the total property crime incidents decreased by 30.68% over the same period. This suggests that improved economic conditions may contribute to reduced property crime rates.

Additionally, there seems to be a positive correlation between home ownership rates and reduced property crime. The percentage of owner-occupied homes increased from 41% in 2013 to 56% in 2022, coinciding with the overall decrease in property crimes. This trend could indicate that higher rates of home ownership contribute to community stability and reduced criminal activity.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continuation of the overall downward trend. Based on the historical data and current socioeconomic factors, it's projected that total property crimes could decrease by an additional 15-20% by 2029. Burglaries and larceny-theft are expected to continue their decline, while motor vehicle theft may stabilize or show a slight increase.

In summary, Mount Morris has experienced a significant overall reduction in property crimes from 2010 to 2022, despite population growth. The most notable improvements have been in burglary and larceny-theft rates, while motor vehicle theft has shown some increase. The correlation between rising median incomes, increased home ownership, and declining crime rates suggests that continued economic growth and community investment could further enhance public safety in the coming years.