Motor vehicle theft trends showed an increase over the period. In 2010, there were 12 reported incidents, which rose to 19 by 2021, a 58.33% increase. However, when adjusted for population, the rate per 1,000 residents increased only slightly from 0.37 in 2010 to 0.39 in 2021, a 5.41% rise. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased from 0.11% in 2010 to 0.15% in 2021, suggesting that this crime type became relatively more prevalent in the city compared to state averages.

Arson incidents remained low throughout the period, with most years reporting either zero or one incident. Due to the low numbers, meaningful trend analysis for arson is limited. However, it's worth noting that the city's contribution to state arson cases never exceeded 0.33% during this period.

Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between population density and property crime rates. As the population density increased from 1,253 per square mile in 2010 to 1,876 in 2021, overall property crime rates per capita decreased. Additionally, there's a notable correlation between rising median income and decreasing property crime rates. The median income rose from $79,848 in 2013 to $102,870 in 2021, coinciding with the general downward trend in property crimes.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we can anticipate a continued gradual decrease in overall property crime rates, particularly in burglary and larceny-theft. However, motor vehicle thefts may continue to show a slight upward trend. These predictions assume that current socioeconomic trends and law enforcement strategies remain consistent.

In summary, Mount Juliet has demonstrated resilience in managing property crime rates despite rapid population growth. The significant decreases in burglary and larceny-theft rates, coupled with rising median incomes and population density, suggest a positive trajectory for community safety. However, the slight increase in motor vehicle thefts warrants continued attention. As the city continues to grow, maintaining these positive trends will be crucial for ensuring long-term safety and quality of life for its residents.