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Property Crime Trends in Motley, Minnesota: A Tale of Larceny-Theft Surge
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Motley, located in Minnesota, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends. From 2017 to 2022, the city experienced fluctuations in total property crimes, with a significant increase from 1 incident in 2017 to 38 in 2022, representing a 3700% increase. During this same period, the population grew modestly from 1,426 to 1,443 residents, a 1.19% increase.
Burglary trends in the city show notable variations. In 2017, there were no reported burglaries, but by 2019, this number rose to 8 incidents. However, there was a subsequent decrease to 1 incident in 2022. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate peaked at 5.75 per 1,000 residents in 2019 and dropped to 0.69 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's contribution to state-wide burglaries also fluctuated, reaching 0.06% in 2019 before declining to 0.01% in 2022. This trend suggests improved security measures or increased community vigilance over time.
Larceny-theft emerged as the predominant property crime in the city. From a single incident in 2017, larceny-theft cases increased dramatically to 46 in 2019, before settling at 36 cases in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents rose from 0.70 in 2017 to 33.09 in 2019, then decreased slightly to 24.95 in 2022. The city's share of state-wide larceny-theft incidents increased from negligible levels in 2017 to 0.06% in 2019, maintaining at 0.05% in 2022. This trend indicates a persistent challenge with petty theft in the community.
Motor vehicle theft showed a gradual increase over the years. From no reported cases in 2017 and 2019, the city saw 1 incident in 2020, increasing to 2 in 2021, and then back to 1 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents correspondingly rose from 0 to 1.39 in 2021, before decreasing to 0.69 in 2022. The city's contribution to state-wide motor vehicle thefts remained low but increased from 0% to 0.01% by 2022, suggesting a minor but growing concern in this area.
Arson cases in the city were notably low throughout the period. Zero incidents were reported from 2017 to 2022, with the exception of 2019 where data was not available. This consistent absence of arson cases indicates effective fire prevention measures or a lack of this type of criminal activity in the community.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a relationship between property crime trends and median income. As median income increased from $39,813 in 2017 to $49,009 in 2022, total property crimes also rose. This counterintuitive trend might suggest that as the city became more affluent, it may have become a more attractive target for property crimes.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a potential stabilization or slight decrease in overall property crime rates. Larceny-theft is expected to remain the primary concern, with projections suggesting it may fluctuate around 30-35 incidents annually. Burglary and motor vehicle theft rates are predicted to remain low, potentially averaging 1-3 incidents per year each.
In summary, Motley has experienced a significant increase in property crimes from 2017 to 2022, primarily driven by larceny-theft. Despite this, the city's contribution to state-wide crime remains relatively small. The inverse relationship between rising median income and increased property crime rates presents an interesting dynamic that local law enforcement and policymakers may need to address. As the city continues to grow and evolve, maintaining focus on community-based crime prevention strategies will be crucial in managing and potentially reducing property crime rates in the coming years.
