Loading Content...
Property Crime Trends in Moscow, Idaho: A Decade of Decline in a Growing College Town
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Moscow, Idaho, a vibrant college town home to the University of Idaho, has experienced notable shifts in property crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes fluctuated, ultimately decreasing by 39.3% from 557 to 338 incidents. During this same period, the city's population grew by 7.9%, from 25,683 to 27,710 residents, suggesting a complex interplay between demographic changes and criminal activity.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a significant downward trend. In 2010, there were 81 reported burglaries, which peaked at 116 in 2013 before declining to 59 in 2022, representing a 27.2% decrease over the 12-year period. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 3.15 per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 2.13 per 1,000 in 2022. Interestingly, despite this decrease in absolute numbers, the city's share of state burglaries increased from 1.88% in 2010 to 2.85% in 2022, indicating a potentially faster decline in burglaries elsewhere in Idaho.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, also demonstrated a downward trajectory. Incidents decreased from 457 in 2010 to 270 in 2022, a 40.9% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 17.8 in 2010 to 9.7 in 2022. However, similar to burglary, the city's proportion of state larceny-theft incidents slightly increased from 2.47% to 2.66% over the same period, suggesting a relative improvement in the city's larceny-theft situation compared to the state average.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has fluctuated but ultimately decreased. From 19 incidents in 2010, it reached a peak of 26 in 2013 before dropping to 9 in 2022, representing a 52.6% decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents declined from 0.74 in 2010 to 0.32 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts decreased from 2.18% to 0.74%, indicating a significant improvement relative to state trends.
Arson cases in the city have been relatively low but variable. From 5 incidents in 2010, it peaked at 12 in 2011 before decreasing to 3 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 0.19 in 2010 to 0.11 in 2022. Despite the overall decrease, the city's share of state arson cases increased from 2.84% to 2.94%, suggesting a slower decline compared to state trends.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates. As the median income increased from $39,232 in 2013 to $47,030 in 2022, property crime incidents decreased from 749 to 338. Additionally, the slight increase in owner-occupied housing from 43% in 2013 to 46% in 2022 coincides with the decline in property crimes, suggesting a potential link between home ownership and community safety.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends, it's estimated that by 2029 (five years from now), total property crimes could potentially decrease to around 250-300 incidents annually if current trends continue. This projection assumes continued population growth and economic stability.
In conclusion, Moscow has made significant strides in reducing property crime rates across all categories over the past decade, outpacing population growth. The city's improved economic indicators and stable community composition appear to have contributed positively to this trend. While the city's share of state crime statistics has increased in some categories, this is likely due to even more rapid improvements in other parts of Idaho. These trends suggest a promising trajectory for community safety in Moscow, with the potential for further reductions in property crime rates in the coming years.
