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Property Crime Trends in Morton Grove: A Decade of Fluctuations in Chicago's Suburban Community
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Morton Grove, Illinois, a suburban community located approximately 15 miles northwest of downtown Chicago, has experienced fluctuations in property crime rates over the years, with a general downward trend from 2010 to 2022. Total property crimes decreased from 396 in 2010 to 318 in 2022, representing a 19.7% reduction. During this same period, the population grew from 23,722 in 2010 to 25,823 in 2022, an increase of 8.9%.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a significant decline over the years. In 2010, there were 75 burglaries reported, which decreased to 79 in 2022. Despite a slight increase in the absolute number, when adjusted for population growth, this represents a decrease from 3.16 burglaries per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 3.06 per 1,000 in 2022. Interestingly, while the number of burglaries decreased, the city's share of state burglaries increased from 0.14% in 2010 to 0.47% in 2022, suggesting a more significant decline in burglaries at the state level compared to the local trend.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, has shown a substantial decrease. In 2010, there were 306 larceny-theft incidents reported, which dropped to 223 in 2022, a 27.1% decrease. When adjusted for population, this represents a decline from 12.9 incidents per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 8.64 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's share of state larceny-theft incidents increased from 0.18% in 2010 to 0.22% in 2022, indicating that the decrease in larceny-theft was less pronounced in the city compared to the state average.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has remained relatively stable over the years, with some fluctuations. In 2010, there were 15 reported incidents, and this number remained the same in 2022 at 16 incidents. However, when considering population growth, the rate decreased slightly from 0.63 incidents per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 0.62 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts remained relatively low, increasing slightly from 0.06% in 2010 to 0.06% in 2022.
Arson incidents in the city have been infrequent, with only a few cases reported over the years. In 2010 and 2011, there were no reported arsons. The highest number of arsons reported was 2 incidents in 2013 and 2022. The city's share of state arsons fluctuated, reaching 0.3% in 2022. Due to the low numbers, it's difficult to establish a clear trend for arson in the city.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. There appears to be a moderate negative correlation between median income and property crime rates. As the median income increased from $84,833 in 2013 to $88,964 in 2022, property crime rates generally decreased. Additionally, there seems to be a weak positive correlation between population density and property crime rates, with both showing slight increases in recent years.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential stabilization or slight increase in property crime rates. Based on recent trends, burglary rates may continue to fluctuate but remain relatively stable, while larceny-theft could see a modest increase. Motor vehicle theft is predicted to remain consistent with recent years, and arson incidents are expected to remain low but may occur sporadically.
In summary, Morton Grove has experienced an overall decrease in property crime rates from 2010 to 2022, despite population growth. The most significant reductions were observed in larceny-theft, while burglary and motor vehicle theft rates have remained relatively stable when adjusted for population growth. The city's share of state property crimes has increased in some categories, suggesting that the local crime reduction may not be as pronounced as the state average. These trends, coupled with rising median incomes and population density, paint a picture of a community that has made progress in reducing property crime but may face challenges in maintaining these improvements in the coming years.
