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Property Crime Trends in Morrisville: Rapid Growth Shapes Crime Landscape
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Morrisville, North Carolina, has experienced significant changes in property crime rates alongside substantial population growth over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes increased from 401 to 699, representing a 74.3% increase. During the same period, the population grew from 28,912 to 52,404, a remarkable 81.3% increase.
Burglary trends in the city have fluctuated over the years. In 2010, there were 66 burglaries, which increased to 87 in 2022, a 31.8% rise. However, when considering the population growth, the burglary rate per 1,000 people actually decreased from 2.28 in 2010 to 1.66 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries increased from 0.12% in 2010 to 0.36% in 2022, indicating that while the local rate decreased relative to population, it increased relative to state figures.
Larceny theft has shown a more pronounced increase. In 2010, there were 321 incidents, which rose to 558 in 2022, a 73.8% increase. The rate per 1,000 people slightly decreased from 11.1 in 2010 to 10.6 in 2022. The city's share of state larceny thefts grew from 0.25% to 0.47% over this period, suggesting a faster increase in larceny theft compared to the state average.
Motor vehicle theft has seen a significant upward trend. From 14 incidents in 2010, it increased to 54 in 2022, a substantial 285.7% rise. The rate per 1,000 people increased from 0.48 in 2010 to 1.03 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts grew from 0.13% to 0.37%, indicating a faster increase compared to the state average.
Arson cases have remained relatively low but showed an increase. From 1 incident in 2010, it rose to 3 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people remained nearly constant at 0.03 in 2010 and 0.06 in 2022. However, the city's share of state arson cases increased from 0.1% to 0.34%, suggesting a faster increase compared to the state average.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong relationship between the increase in property crimes and population growth. As the population density increased from 3,275 per square mile in 2010 to 5,936 in 2022, property crimes also rose. Additionally, there's a notable correlation between the changing racial demographics and crime rates. As the Asian population percentage increased from 28% in 2013 to 38% in 2022, and the white population decreased from 52% to 41%, property crime rates showed an upward trend.
Applying predictive models based on these trends, it's projected that by 2029, property crimes could increase by approximately 25-30% from the 2022 levels, potentially reaching around 875-910 incidents annually. This projection assumes similar population growth and demographic shift patterns continue.
In summary, Morrisville has experienced a significant increase in property crimes, particularly in motor vehicle theft and larceny, which have outpaced population growth in some aspects. The city's share of state crime has increased across all categories, indicating faster crime growth compared to the state average. These trends, coupled with rapid population growth and changing demographics, suggest a need for targeted crime prevention strategies to address the evolving landscape of property crime in the area.
