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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Morristown, located in Tennessee, has experienced significant fluctuations in property crime rates over the past decade, alongside modest population growth. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased by 45.6%, from 2,099 to 1,141 incidents. During the same period, the population increased by 4.5%, from 53,842 to 56,283 residents, indicating a notable improvement in property crime rates relative to population growth.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a substantial decline over the years. In 2010, there were 178 burglaries, which decreased to 132 in 2022, representing a 25.8% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 3.31 per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 2.34 per 1,000 in 2022. Interestingly, despite this decrease in absolute numbers, the city's share of state burglaries increased from 0.41% in 2010 to 0.98% in 2022. This suggests that while the city has made progress in reducing burglaries, the improvement has been less pronounced compared to the state average.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, also saw a significant decrease. In 2010, there were 1,838 larceny-theft incidents, which dropped to 851 in 2022, a 53.7% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 34.14 in 2010 to 15.12 in 2022. The city's share of state larceny-theft incidents decreased slightly from 1.57% to 1.12% over this period, indicating that the city's improvement in this category was roughly in line with state trends.
Motor vehicle theft trends have been more volatile. The number of incidents increased from 83 in 2010 to 158 in 2022, a 90.4% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents rose from 1.54 in 2010 to 2.81 in 2022. Despite this increase, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts only increased slightly from 0.78% to 0.89%, suggesting that this trend may be part of a broader state or regional pattern.
Arson cases in the city have remained relatively low but fluctuated over the years. In 2010, there were 7 arsons reported, which decreased to 6 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents remained nearly constant, changing from 0.13 in 2010 to 0.11 in 2022. However, the city's share of state arsons increased from 0.92% to 1.12%, indicating that arson rates in the city have not improved as much as the state average.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The city's population density increased from 1,945 per square mile in 2010 to 2,033 in 2022, while property crimes decreased. This suggests that increased urbanization has not led to higher crime rates in this case. Additionally, the median income rose from $43,222 in 2013 to $47,064 in 2022, which coincides with the overall decrease in property crimes, potentially indicating a relationship between improved economic conditions and reduced crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continuation of the overall declining trend in total property crimes. Based on the historical data and current trends, it's projected that by 2029, the city could see total property crimes decrease to approximately 950-1,000 incidents annually. However, motor vehicle thefts may continue to pose a challenge, potentially reaching around 200 incidents per year if current trends persist.
In summary, Morristown has made significant strides in reducing overall property crime rates over the past decade, particularly in burglary and larceny-theft. The divergent trend in motor vehicle thefts presents an area for focused attention in future crime prevention strategies. The city's ability to reduce crime rates while experiencing population growth and increased urbanization is noteworthy and may offer insights for other similar-sized communities grappling with property crime issues.