Motor vehicle theft trends have been more volatile. The number of incidents increased from 83 in 2010 to 158 in 2022, a 90.4% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents rose from 1.54 in 2010 to 2.81 in 2022. Despite this increase, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts only increased slightly from 0.78% to 0.89%, suggesting that this trend may be part of a broader state or regional pattern.

Arson cases in the city have remained relatively low but fluctuated over the years. In 2010, there were 7 arsons reported, which decreased to 6 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents remained nearly constant, changing from 0.13 in 2010 to 0.11 in 2022. However, the city's share of state arsons increased from 0.92% to 1.12%, indicating that arson rates in the city have not improved as much as the state average.

Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The city's population density increased from 1,945 per square mile in 2010 to 2,033 in 2022, while property crimes decreased. This suggests that increased urbanization has not led to higher crime rates in this case. Additionally, the median income rose from $43,222 in 2013 to $47,064 in 2022, which coincides with the overall decrease in property crimes, potentially indicating a relationship between improved economic conditions and reduced crime rates.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continuation of the overall declining trend in total property crimes. Based on the historical data and current trends, it's projected that by 2029, the city could see total property crimes decrease to approximately 950-1,000 incidents annually. However, motor vehicle thefts may continue to pose a challenge, potentially reaching around 200 incidents per year if current trends persist.

In summary, Morristown has made significant strides in reducing overall property crime rates over the past decade, particularly in burglary and larceny-theft. The divergent trend in motor vehicle thefts presents an area for focused attention in future crime prevention strategies. The city's ability to reduce crime rates while experiencing population growth and increased urbanization is noteworthy and may offer insights for other similar-sized communities grappling with property crime issues.