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Property Crime Trends in Morganton, NC: A Decade of Fluctuating Rates
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Morganton, located in North Carolina, has experienced notable fluctuations in property crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes increased by 18.4%, rising from 494 to 585 incidents. This increase occurred alongside a slight population decline of 1.9%, from 27,906 in 2010 to 27,379 in 2022, suggesting a disproportionate rise in property crime relative to population changes.
Burglary trends in the city have shown significant variations. In 2010, there were 121 burglaries, which increased to 164 by 2022, representing a 35.5% rise. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate increased from 4.34 to 5.99 per 1,000 residents. Notably, the city's share of state burglaries rose dramatically from 0.22% in 2010 to 0.67% in 2022, indicating a growing concentration of burglary incidents relative to the state average. This trend suggests that burglary has become a more pressing concern for local law enforcement and community safety initiatives.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, saw an 8.7% increase from 355 incidents in 2010 to 386 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents grew from 12.72 to 14.10 over this period. The city's proportion of state larceny-theft incidents increased from 0.27% to 0.32%, indicating a slightly higher concentration of these crimes compared to the state average. This trend suggests a need for targeted prevention strategies to address petty theft and shoplifting.
Motor vehicle theft in the city nearly doubled, rising from 18 incidents in 2010 to 35 in 2022, a 94.4% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents grew from 0.65 to 1.28. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased from 0.17% to 0.24%, indicating a growing problem relative to state trends. This significant rise in vehicle thefts may necessitate increased surveillance and community awareness programs.
Arson cases in the city have remained relatively low but volatile. From 4 incidents in 2010, the number decreased to 1 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 0.14 to 0.04. However, the city's proportion of state arson cases fluctuated, decreasing from 0.39% in 2010 to 0.11% in 2022, suggesting that while arson remains a concern, it has become less prevalent relative to state figures.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a relationship between property crime trends and demographic shifts. As the white population percentage decreased from 73% in 2013 to 70% in 2022, property crime rates increased. Concurrently, the Hispanic population grew from 11% to 13%, and the Black population from 9% to 11%. This demographic diversification coincided with rising property crime rates, though causation cannot be inferred from correlation alone.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a continued gradual increase in overall property crime rates. Burglaries are projected to rise by approximately 10%, reaching around 180 incidents annually. Larceny-theft is expected to increase by 5-7%, potentially exceeding 410 cases per year. Motor vehicle theft may see the most significant growth, potentially increasing by 20-25% to reach 43-44 incidents annually. Arson cases are predicted to remain low but may fluctuate between 1-3 incidents per year.
In summary, Morganton faces increasing challenges in property crime, particularly in burglary and motor vehicle theft. The disproportionate rise in crime rates compared to population changes suggests a need for enhanced law enforcement strategies and community-based crime prevention programs. The city's growing share of state crime incidents in various categories indicates that local factors may be contributing to these trends, necessitating targeted interventions tailored to the specific needs and demographics of Morganton.
