Motor vehicle theft in the city has remained relatively stable, with some fluctuations. In 2010, there were 11 incidents, which increased slightly to 13 in 2022. However, when accounting for population growth, the rate per 1,000 residents actually decreased from 0.70 in 2010 to 0.76 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts remained low, ranging from 0.06% to 0.15% over the years, settling at 0.09% in 2022. This stability suggests that local efforts to combat vehicle theft have been largely effective in keeping pace with population growth.

Arson incidents in the city have been low and variable. The number of arsons peaked at 5 in 2013 but decreased to just 1 incident in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents dropped from 0.064 in 2010 to 0.059 in 2022. The city's contribution to state arson cases fluctuated significantly, ranging from 0% to 0.59%, ending at 0.11% in 2022. While the low numbers make trend analysis challenging, the overall reduction in arson cases is a positive development for public safety.

There appears to be a moderate correlation between the decrease in property crimes and the increase in median income. As the median income rose from $44,909 in 2013 to $58,060 in 2022, a 29.3% increase, the total property crime rate fell by 52.5% during the same period. This suggests that improved economic conditions may have contributed to reduced property crime rates.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends, it's estimated that by 2029 (five years from now), the city could see a further reduction in overall property crime rates. Based on the current trends, burglaries could potentially decrease to around 30 incidents per year, larceny-theft might drop to approximately 150 cases annually, and motor vehicle thefts could stabilize at around 10-12 incidents per year. Arson cases are likely to remain low, potentially averaging 1-2 incidents annually.

In summary, Morehead City has experienced a significant reduction in property crime rates over the past decade, particularly in burglaries and larceny-theft. This positive trend, coupled with population growth and increasing median income, suggests an improving quality of life for residents. The city's decreasing contribution to state-wide property crime statistics indicates that local crime prevention strategies may be more effective than those in other parts of North Carolina. As the community continues to grow and evolve, maintaining these positive trends will be crucial for ensuring the ongoing safety and prosperity of Morehead City.