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Property Crime Trends in Moraine, Ohio: A Decade of Significant Fluctuations
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Moraine, located in Ohio, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends. From 2010 to 2022, the city experienced a significant decrease in total property crimes, dropping from 864 to 429, representing a 50.35% reduction. During this same period, the population slightly decreased from 9,052 in 2010 to 8,567 in 2022, a 5.36% decline.
Burglary rates in the city showed a notable downward trend over the years. In 2010, there were 90 burglaries, which decreased to 29 by 2022, marking a 67.78% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 9.94 per 1,000 people in 2010 to 3.38 per 1,000 in 2022. Interestingly, despite this decrease, the city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, rising from 0.12% in 2010 to 0.14% in 2022. This suggests that while burglaries decreased locally, they may have decreased at a faster rate statewide.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, also showed a significant decline. In 2010, there were 760 larceny-theft incidents, which decreased to 362 by 2022, a 52.37% reduction. The rate per 1,000 people dropped from 83.96 in 2010 to 42.26 in 2022. The city's share of state larceny-theft decreased from 0.50% to 0.35% during this period, indicating a faster decline compared to the state average.
Motor vehicle theft trends showed more volatility. From 14 incidents in 2010, it increased to 38 in 2022, a 171.43% rise. The rate per 1,000 people increased from 1.55 in 2010 to 4.44 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts rose from 0.08% to 0.17%, suggesting a faster increase compared to the state average.
Arson cases in the city remained relatively low but fluctuated over the years. From 3 incidents in 2010, it decreased to 2 in 2022, a 33.33% reduction. The rate per 1,000 people slightly decreased from 0.33 in 2010 to 0.23 in 2022. However, the city's share of state arsons increased from 0.11% to 0.23%, indicating a slower decrease compared to the state average.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates. As median income increased from $38,357 in 2013 to $45,668 in 2022, total property crimes decreased from 720 to 429. Additionally, there's a notable correlation between the changing racial demographics and crime rates. As the white population percentage decreased from 72% in 2013 to 66% in 2022, and the Hispanic population increased from 1% to 10%, property crime rates generally declined.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a continued overall decline in property crimes, potentially reaching around 350 incidents annually. However, motor vehicle thefts may continue to rise, potentially reaching 50 incidents per year.
In summary, Moraine has experienced a significant overall reduction in property crimes from 2010 to 2022, particularly in burglaries and larceny-thefts. This positive trend correlates with rising median incomes and changing demographics. However, the increase in motor vehicle thefts presents a challenge that may require targeted intervention. These trends provide valuable insights for local law enforcement and policymakers in shaping future crime prevention strategies.
