Motor vehicle theft in the city has fluctuated but ultimately increased. From 10 incidents in 2010 to 19 in 2022, there was a 90% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents rose from 0.62 to 1.11, a 79.03% increase. However, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts remained relatively stable, changing from 0.01% to 0.01% over the period.

Arson cases in the city have been sporadic and low in number. There was 1 case in 2010 and 0 in 2022. The highest number recorded was 3 cases in 2019. Due to the low numbers, meaningful trends are difficult to establish, but the city's contribution to state arson cases has remained minimal, ranging from 0% to 0.04% over the years.

Examining correlations, there appears to be a relationship between the rise in median income and the overall decrease in property crimes. The median income increased from $149,204 in 2013 to $161,268 in 2022, while total property crimes decreased from 150 to 155 during the same period. Additionally, the slight increase in homeownership rates from 86% in 2013 to 87% in 2022 correlates with the general downward trend in larceny-theft cases.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a slight increase in burglaries, potentially reaching around 50 cases annually. Larceny-theft is expected to stabilize around 100 cases per year. Motor vehicle theft may continue its upward trend, possibly reaching 25-30 cases annually. Arson cases are predicted to remain low, likely not exceeding 1-2 cases per year.

In summary, Moraga has experienced a complex evolution in property crime patterns over the past decade. While overall property crime has decreased, specific categories like burglary and motor vehicle theft have seen increases. The city's growing population and rising median income appear to have influenced these trends. As the community continues to evolve, ongoing monitoring and adaptive strategies will be crucial in maintaining and improving public safety in Moraga.