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Property Crime Trends in Monrovia: A Decade of Change and Challenges
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Monrovia, located in California, has experienced fluctuating property crime rates over the past decade, alongside modest population growth. From 2010 to 2022, total property crimes decreased by 16.3%, from 1,080 to 904 incidents. During this same period, the population increased by 3.4%, from 37,877 to 39,162 residents.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a significant downward trend. In 2010, there were 158 burglaries, which decreased to 132 in 2022, representing a 16.5% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 4.17 to 3.37 per 1,000 residents. The city's share of state burglaries increased slightly from 0.09% in 2010 to 0.11% in 2022, suggesting that while local burglaries decreased, they did so at a slower rate than the state average.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, saw a 16.3% decrease from 797 incidents in 2010 to 667 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents dropped from 21.04 to 17.03. However, the city's proportion of state larceny-theft cases decreased slightly from 0.15% to 0.13%, indicating that the local reduction outpaced the state average.
Motor vehicle theft exhibited fluctuations but ultimately decreased by 16% from 125 incidents in 2010 to 105 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 3.30 to 2.68. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts decreased from 0.10% to 0.07%, suggesting a more significant local improvement compared to state trends.
Arson cases, while relatively low in number, showed a concerning increase. From no reported cases in 2010, there were 8 incidents in 2022. This translates to a rate increase from 0 to 0.20 per 1,000 residents. The city's proportion of state arson cases rose dramatically from 0% to 0.13%, indicating a local trend contrary to state improvements.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates. As median income increased from $86,176 in 2013 to $85,236 in 2022, overall property crime rates tended to decrease. Additionally, there's a slight correlation between changes in racial demographics and crime rates. As the Hispanic population increased from 41% in 2013 to 45% in 2022, and the White population decreased from 38% to 29%, property crime rates showed some fluctuations but generally decreased.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a continuation of the overall downward trend in burglary, larceny-theft, and motor vehicle theft. However, arson cases are projected to continue increasing if current trends persist. The total number of property crimes is expected to stabilize around 850-900 incidents annually, assuming no significant changes in socioeconomic factors or law enforcement strategies.
In summary, Monrovia has made notable progress in reducing most types of property crime over the past decade, outperforming state averages in several categories. The rise in arson cases, however, warrants attention. The city's changing demographics and economic landscape appear to have some influence on crime trends, suggesting that continued focus on community engagement, economic development, and targeted crime prevention strategies could further improve public safety in the coming years.
