Motor vehicle theft in the city has shown an overall increase, despite fluctuations. From 21 incidents in 2010, it dropped to a low of 11 in 2014 and 2016, before rising to 28 in 2022, a 33.33% increase from 2010. The rate per 1,000 residents grew from 1.40 in 2010 to 1.97 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts decreased from 0.16% in 2010 to 0.07% in 2016, before rising to 0.12% in 2022. This trend could suggest a need for enhanced vehicle security measures or targeted law enforcement efforts.

Arson cases in the city have been relatively low and inconsistent. The data shows 2 cases in 2010, 2014, 2015, 2016, and 2017, with 4 cases in 2012 and only 1 in 2018. No arson cases were reported in 2011, 2013, and from 2020 to 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents remained below 0.3 throughout the period. The city's proportion of state arsons fluctuated between 0% and 0.41%, with no clear trend. The low and sporadic nature of arson incidents makes it difficult to draw meaningful conclusions about trends or patterns.

Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between property crime rates and median income. As median income increased from $47,746 in 2013 to $53,631 in 2022, overall property crime rates generally decreased. Additionally, there's a notable correlation between the decrease in the percentage of owner-occupied housing (from 71% in 2013 to 61% in 2022) and the overall reduction in property crimes, particularly burglaries.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends, it's estimated that by 2029 (five years from now), Monett may see a further 15-20% decrease in overall property crimes if current trends continue. Burglaries and larceny-thefts are expected to continue their downward trend, potentially reaching around 30 and 140 incidents respectively. However, motor vehicle thefts may continue to rise, possibly reaching 35-40 incidents annually.

In summary, Monett has experienced a general decrease in property crimes over the past decade, with notable reductions in burglaries and larceny-thefts. The inverse relationship between rising median income and declining property crime rates suggests improving economic conditions may be contributing to this positive trend. However, the increase in motor vehicle thefts and the decline in owner-occupied housing warrant attention from local policymakers and law enforcement. As the city moves forward, maintaining focus on economic development and targeted crime prevention strategies will be crucial in sustaining and improving upon these trends.