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Property Crime Trends in Monessen: A Decade of Significant Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Monessen, located in Pennsylvania, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends. From 2010 to 2018, the total number of property crimes fluctuated but ultimately decreased by 43.4%, from 244 to 138 incidents. This significant reduction occurred against a backdrop of population decline, with the city's population decreasing by 5.9% from 7,862 in 2010 to 7,396 in 2018.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a notable downward trend over the years. In 2010, there were 68 burglaries reported, which decreased to 22 by 2018, representing a 67.6% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 8.65 per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 2.97 per 1,000 in 2018. Interestingly, the city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, peaking at 0.32% in 2015 before dropping to 0.17% in 2018. This trend suggests that while burglaries decreased locally, the reduction was not as pronounced at the state level.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, also experienced a significant decline. In 2010, there were 170 reported cases, which decreased to 110 by 2018, a 35.3% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 21.62 in 2010 to 14.87 in 2018. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft cases remained relatively stable, hovering around 0.22-0.25% from 2010 to 2013, before dropping to 0.17% in 2018. This indicates that the city's larceny-theft reduction was generally in line with state trends.
Motor vehicle theft in the city showed more volatility. From 6 cases in 2010, it peaked at 12 in 2012 and 2015, before returning to 6 cases in 2018. The rate per 1,000 residents fluctuated accordingly, from 0.76 in 2010 to 0.81 in 2018, with a peak of 1.58 in 2015. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts varied widely, from a low of 0.01% in 2017 to a high of 0.16% in 2015. This volatility suggests that motor vehicle theft in the city may be more susceptible to short-term local factors than broader state trends.
Arson cases in the city remained low but variable. From 3 cases in 2010, it dropped to zero in 2011 and 2013, before fluctuating between 1 and 3 cases in subsequent years. The rate per 1,000 residents ranged from 0 to 0.4. The city's contribution to state arson cases was notably high in some years, reaching 0.5% in 2010 and 0.39% in 2015, despite the low absolute numbers. This suggests that arson, while infrequent, had a disproportionate impact relative to the city's size.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between property crime rates and median income. As median income increased from $34,512 in 2013 to $42,518 in 2018, total property crimes decreased from 273 to 138. Additionally, the percentage of owner-occupied housing units rose from 68% in 2013 to 73% in 2018, coinciding with the decrease in property crimes. This suggests that increasing economic stability and homeownership may contribute to reduced property crime rates.
Applying predictive models based on the observed trends, it's projected that by 2029 (five years from now), the city could see a further reduction in property crimes. Burglaries might decrease to around 15 cases annually, larceny-theft to approximately 90 cases, and motor vehicle theft could stabilize at 4-5 cases per year. Arson cases are likely to remain low, potentially averaging 1 case annually.
In summary, Monessen has experienced a significant overall reduction in property crimes from 2010 to 2018, with improvements across all categories. This positive trend, occurring alongside increases in median income and homeownership, suggests a potential link between economic stability and crime reduction. However, the city's declining population presents a complex factor in interpreting these trends, highlighting the need for continued monitoring and targeted strategies to maintain and further improve public safety in the coming years.
