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Property Crime Trends in Moline, Illinois: A Decade of Change Along the Mississippi
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Moline, Illinois, a city situated along the Mississippi River, has experienced notable fluctuations in property crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased by 20%, from 1,487 to 1,190. During this same period, the city's population declined by 1.1%, from 45,991 to 45,468 residents.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a significant downward trend. In 2010, there were 302 burglaries reported, which decreased to 183 by 2022, representing a 39.4% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 6.57 per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 4.02 per 1,000 in 2022. Interestingly, while the number of burglaries decreased, the city's share of state burglaries increased from 0.56% in 2010 to 1.1% in 2022, suggesting a potentially faster decline in burglaries at the state level.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, also showed a declining trend. In 2010, there were 1,140 larceny-theft incidents, which decreased to 831 by 2022, a 27.1% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents dropped from 24.79 in 2010 to 18.28 in 2022. The city's share of state larceny-thefts fluctuated over the years but ultimately increased from 0.68% in 2010 to 0.81% in 2022, indicating that the city's larceny-theft rates may be decreasing at a slower pace than the state average.
Motor vehicle theft, however, has seen a concerning upward trend. In 2010, there were 45 reported incidents, which increased to 176 by 2022, a substantial 291% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents rose from 0.98 in 2010 to 3.87 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts also increased significantly, from 0.18% in 2010 to 0.62% in 2022, suggesting that this crime is becoming a more pressing issue in the city compared to the state average.
Arson incidents have fluctuated over the years but show an overall increase. In 2010, there were 3 reported arsons, which rose to 11 in 2022, a 267% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 0.07 in 2010 to 0.24 in 2022. The city's share of state arsons rose from 0.29% to 1.67% during this period, indicating that arson has become a more significant issue in the city relative to the state.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. There appears to be a moderate negative correlation between median income and property crime rates. As median income increased from $51,687 in 2013 to $60,560 in 2022, overall property crime rates tended to decrease. Additionally, there seems to be a weak positive correlation between the percentage of non-white residents and property crime rates. As the white population percentage decreased from 75% in 2013 to 69% in 2022, property crime rates showed some fluctuations but generally increased in recent years.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential continuation of current patterns. Burglary and larceny-theft rates are expected to continue their gradual decline, while motor vehicle theft and arson rates may continue to rise if current trends persist. However, these predictions should be interpreted cautiously, as various factors can influence crime rates.
In summary, Moline has experienced a mixed bag of property crime trends over the past decade. While burglary and larceny-theft rates have shown encouraging declines, the significant increases in motor vehicle theft and arson present new challenges for law enforcement and community safety initiatives. The city's changing demographics and economic conditions appear to have some influence on these trends, highlighting the complex interplay between socioeconomic factors and crime rates.
