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Property Crime Trends in Mission, Kansas: A Decade of Divergent Patterns
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Mission, Kansas, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends. From 2010 to 2022, the city experienced fluctuations in total property crimes, with a notable increase from 403 incidents in 2010 to 482 in 2022, representing a 19.6% rise. During this same period, the population grew from 9,892 to 10,411, a 5.2% increase, suggesting that crime rates outpaced population growth.
Burglary trends in the city have shown a significant decline over the years. In 2010, there were 36 burglaries, which increased to 53 in 2015, but then dropped sharply to 25 by 2022, a 30.6% decrease from 2010 levels. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate decreased from 3.64 per 1,000 people in 2010 to 2.40 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, rising from 0.24% in 2010 to 0.49% in 2015, before falling to 0.41% in 2022. This downward trend in burglaries, despite population growth, suggests improved security measures or shifting criminal activities.
Larceny-theft incidents have shown more volatility. From 302 cases in 2010, they peaked at 396 in 2020 before decreasing to 356 in 2022, an overall increase of 17.9%. The rate per 1,000 people increased slightly from 30.53 in 2010 to 34.19 in 2022. The city's proportion of state larceny-thefts rose from 0.57% in 2010 to 1.02% in 2022, indicating a growing concentration of these crimes relative to the state. This trend suggests that while overall crime rates have increased, larceny-theft has become a more prominent issue in the city compared to other areas in Kansas.
Motor vehicle theft has seen a dramatic increase over the years. From 65 incidents in 2010, it dropped to 41 in 2012 but then surged to 101 in 2022, a 55.4% increase from 2010. The rate per 1,000 people rose from 6.57 in 2010 to 9.70 in 2022. More strikingly, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased from 1.27% in 2010 to 1.94% in 2022, peaking at 2.39% in 2021. This significant rise suggests that motor vehicle theft has become a growing concern for the city, potentially requiring targeted law enforcement efforts.
Arson incidents in the city have been sporadic and relatively low. Data is only available for a few years, with 2 cases reported in 2013 and 1 case each in 2016 and 2020. The rate per 1,000 people and percentage of state arsons have remained negligible, indicating that arson is not a significant concern for the city compared to other property crimes.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong relationship between the rising median income and increasing motor vehicle thefts. The median income grew from $60,338 in 2013 to $81,515 in 2022, coinciding with the surge in motor vehicle thefts. This could suggest that as the city's affluence increased, it became a more attractive target for car thieves. Additionally, the slight decrease in owner-occupied housing from 48% in 2013 to 47% in 2019, before rising back to 48% in 2022, loosely correlates with fluctuations in burglary rates, possibly indicating a connection between homeownership and property security.
Applying predictive models based on these trends, it's projected that by 2029 (five years from now), Mission may see a continued increase in motor vehicle thefts, potentially reaching around 140-150 incidents annually. Larceny-theft is likely to stabilize or slightly increase to approximately 370-380 cases per year. Burglaries are expected to remain relatively low, possibly decreasing further to around 20-22 incidents annually. The overall property crime rate is predicted to increase moderately, driven primarily by motor vehicle thefts and larceny-theft.
In summary, Mission has experienced a shift in its property crime landscape from 2010 to 2022. While burglaries have decreased, both larceny-theft and motor vehicle theft have risen significantly, outpacing population growth. The city's increasing affluence appears to correlate with higher rates of certain property crimes, particularly motor vehicle theft. These trends underscore the need for targeted crime prevention strategies in Mission, focusing on vehicle security and theft prevention measures to address the most pressing property crime issues.
