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Property Crime Trends in Millbrook, Alabama: A Decade of Change and Resilience
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Millbrook, located in Alabama, has experienced notable fluctuations in property crime rates alongside population growth over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased by 3.6%, from 445 to 429 incidents. During this same period, the population grew by 15%, from 16,971 to 19,502 residents, indicating a positive trend in overall safety relative to population growth.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a significant downward trend. In 2010, there were 106 burglaries, which decreased to 20 in 2022, representing an 81.1% reduction. When adjusted for population, the rate fell from 6.25 burglaries per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 1.03 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries also decreased from 0.45% in 2010 to 0.18% in 2022, suggesting improved local security measures compared to the state average.
Larceny-theft incidents have fluctuated but ultimately increased over the period. In 2010, there were 336 cases, rising to 379 in 2022, a 12.8% increase. However, when accounting for population growth, the rate per 1,000 residents actually decreased slightly from 19.8 in 2010 to 19.4 in 2022. Notably, the city's share of state larceny-theft cases increased substantially from 0.46% in 2010 to 0.81% in 2022, indicating a higher concentration of these crimes relative to the state.
Motor vehicle theft showed an overall increase, from 3 incidents in 2010 to 30 in 2022, a 900% rise. The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 0.18 to 1.54. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts grew from 0.05% to 0.45%, suggesting a disproportionate increase compared to state trends.
Arson data is largely unavailable, with only two data points: zero incidents reported in both 2011 and 2022. This lack of data makes it impossible to draw meaningful conclusions about arson trends in the city.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a relationship between population density and property crime rates. As population density increased from 1,187 per square mile in 2010 to 1,364 in 2022, overall property crime rates initially rose but then declined, suggesting other factors may be influencing crime rates. There is also a potential correlation between racial demographics and crime rates, with the proportion of white residents decreasing from 73% in 2013 to 63% in 2022, coinciding with fluctuations in property crime rates.
Applying predictive models based on historical trends, it's projected that by 2029 (five years from now), overall property crime rates may continue to decrease slightly, with burglaries likely to remain low. Larceny-theft is expected to remain the predominant property crime, potentially increasing marginally. Motor vehicle thefts may stabilize or show a slight increase if current trends persist.
In summary, Millbrook has demonstrated resilience in managing property crime rates despite population growth. The significant reduction in burglaries is particularly noteworthy, while the increase in motor vehicle thefts presents an area for focused intervention. The city's changing demographic composition and increasing population density appear to be factors influencing crime trends, highlighting the need for adaptive law enforcement strategies to maintain and improve public safety in the coming years.
