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Property Crime Trends in Miles City, Montana: A Decade of Significant Reduction
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Miles City, Montana, a small city with a population of 9,763 as of 2022, has experienced notable fluctuations in property crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased significantly from 205 to 55, representing a 73.17% reduction. During this same period, the city's population remained relatively stable, with a slight decrease of 0.91% from 9,852 in 2010 to 9,763 in 2022.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a general downward trend. In 2010, there were 10 burglaries reported, which decreased to 7 in 2022, representing a 30% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 people decreased from 1.01 in 2010 to 0.72 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated over the years, dropping from 0.54% in 2010 to 0.45% in 2022. This decline in burglaries, both in absolute numbers and as a percentage of state crime, suggests improved security measures or changing criminal patterns within the city.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in Miles City, has also seen a substantial decrease. In 2010, there were 180 larceny-theft incidents, which dropped to 44 in 2022, a 75.56% reduction. The rate per 1,000 people decreased from 18.27 in 2010 to 4.51 in 2022. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft crimes decreased from 1.57% in 2010 to 0.35% in 2022. This significant reduction in larceny-theft could indicate improved community vigilance or successful crime prevention strategies.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has shown fluctuations but an overall decrease. From 15 incidents in 2010, it decreased to 4 in 2022, a 73.33% reduction. The rate per 1,000 people dropped from 1.52 in 2010 to 0.41 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts decreased from 1.89% to 0.26% over this period. This trend suggests improved vehicle security or changes in criminal targeting within the city.
Arson cases in Miles City have remained low but variable. There was 1 case reported in 2010, which remained the same in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people stayed relatively constant at 0.10. The city's contribution to state arson cases decreased slightly from 1.82% in 2010 to 1.12% in 2022. While arson remains a concern, its low incidence suggests it is not a widespread issue in the city.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a relationship between property crime rates and demographic changes. As the white population percentage decreased from 93% in 2013 to 88% in 2022, there was a concurrent decrease in property crimes. This could suggest changing community dynamics influencing crime rates. Additionally, the median income increased from $50,399 in 2013 to $58,613 in 2022, which coincided with the overall decrease in property crimes, potentially indicating that improved economic conditions may contribute to reduced crime rates.
Applying predictive models based on the observed trends, it's forecasted that property crime rates in Miles City will continue to decrease over the next five years (up to 2029). The total number of property crimes could potentially drop below 40 incidents per year, with larceny-theft remaining the most common but significantly reduced form of property crime. Burglary and motor vehicle theft rates are expected to stabilize at very low levels, while arson cases are likely to remain sporadic and infrequent.
In conclusion, Miles City has experienced a significant reduction in property crime rates across all categories over the past decade. This positive trend, coupled with stable population figures and improving economic indicators, suggests a safer and more secure environment for residents. The city's declining contribution to state crime statistics further underscores its progress in crime reduction. If current trends continue, Miles City is poised to maintain its low crime rates, potentially becoming one of the safest small cities in Montana.
